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华鼎锦纶(601113)三季报点评:业绩增速接近预告上限 给力

民族證券 ·  Oct 29, 2013 00:00  · Researches

Investment highlights: The company released its three-quarter report: In January-September of this year, the company achieved operating income of 125 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 7.35%, net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies of 58.025 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 67.40%, and an EPS of 0.09 yuan, a year-on-year increase of 805. In July-September of this year, the company achieved operating income of 447 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 2.75%, net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies of 18.8602 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 144.24%, and an EPS of 0.03 yuan. The performance growth rate is close to the forecast limit, which is impressive! The gross margin trend is in line with expectations. The year-on-year increase in gross margin and the reduction in financial expenses are the main reasons for the sharp year-on-year increase in performance. The company's three-quarter performance report is very close to the upper limit of the previous forecast, slightly exceeding our expectations. The company's gross margin increased by about 3 percent year over year and the sharp drop in financial expenses were the main reasons for the sharp increase in the company's performance year over year. We think the main reason for the sharp increase in the company's gross margin is that the brand premium brought about by the company's product positioning at the high-end is related to the good market development situation in the first three quarters (although there was a slight decline in operating income, the magnitude is far less than the drop in nylon prices of more than 10% this year, so the company's sales volume should have increased). Judging from the price spread situation in the nylon industry, the price spread for nylon products without nylon slices actually narrowed somewhat in the third quarter, so the company's gross margin declined somewhat month-on-month in the third quarter. Furthermore, the company's financial expenses fell sharply year on year. We believe that the direct reason is that exchange gains outweigh exchange losses. The performance base for the fourth quarter of last year was high, and the results for the fourth quarter of this year may be difficult to catch up with, but it is expected that the price difference between nylon and caprolactate/nylon slices may widen in the fourth quarter. Due to the company's excellent performance in the fourth quarter of last year, net profit for a single quarter reached 38.26 million yuan, which is equivalent to the results of two normal quarters, so it is difficult for the fourth quarter of this year to significantly exceed expectations year on year. However, judging from the current trend, we believe that the price difference between booming nylon and upstream raw materials is widening, but from the current point of view, the current price difference still lags about 1,000 yuan/ton in the same period last year. We expect the gross margin for the fourth quarter to be between 12-18%. I am optimistic about the company's future development in overseas markets, especially the South American market. The company has always paid attention to the expansion of the South American market. As can be seen from the board of directors report in the company's 2012 annual report, the South American market should be a new growth point for the company's export market. At the end of September this year, the company obtained zero tax rate in Brazil's preliminary anti-dumping ruling on nylon wire from the three countries and regions. It is the only company that has escaped taxation for mainland enterprises. Other listed companies, such as Chunhui Shares, Meida Shares, and some nylon companies listed overseas, were all subject to anti-dumping duties to varying degrees. Since Brazil's local nylon yarn is positioned at the low end and the company's products are positioned at the high end, it is expected that Brazilian nylon companies will not have an impact on the company's nylon products, while in the high-end sector, since competitors are taxed, we expect the company's products to be more competitive in the Brazilian market in the future, and we expect this share to increase to a certain extent in the future. Maintain the company's “increase in holdings” investment rating. We expect the company's 2013-2015 EPS to be 0.14 yuan, 0.25 yuan, and 0.37 yuan, maintaining an investment rating of “increased holdings”. Risk warning. The risk of a sharp drop in caprolactam prices, the risk of changes in Brazil's final anti-dumping ruling, and the risk of weakening textile and garment exports. The risk that the company's project production time is lower than expected.

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