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闽发铝业(002578):期待产能释放、助力业绩增长

財達證券 ·  Dec 16, 2013 00:00  · Researches

The company is one of the leading aluminum profile enterprises in the Haixi sector. The company's product production areas are mainly construction aluminum profiles and industrial aluminum profiles. The company mainly uses aluminum bars as raw materials to produce customized or personalized architectural aluminum profiles and industrial aluminum profiles through production processes such as casting, extrusion, oxidation (electrophoresis), and spraying. Although the development of the real estate industry in the domestic construction industry has been affected by the country's macro-control in recent years, domestic construction, decoration, curtain wall and other industries have huge market demand for aluminum profiles. According to market research data, demand for aluminum is expected to maintain a growth trend of about 5%-8% by 2015. After changing the construction of production lines for fund-raising projects, the company will eventually diversify its aluminum profile product line, so that the company can produce products of different specifications for diverse markets. The company mainly targets aluminum construction profiles for market expansion. The increase in production capacity, specifications, and technology of related products will increase the company's sources of revenue in the future. We believe that the company has brand and product advantages in the province in terms of construction profiles and industrial profiles, and that the increase in demand in downstream markets will help the company's performance grow steadily. The company's current output is about 45000-50,000 tons/year, mainly domestic sales. More than 80% of revenue comes from domestic business, of which the provincial business accounts for about 70%. The company expects the fund-raising project production line to be put into operation in the first half of 2014, aiming to achieve an output of about 58,000-63,000 tons/year in 2014 and 68,000-72,000 tons/year in 2015. We consider factors such as the current stage of the company and the future development of the industry, and from the analysis of changing factors such as the company's production capacity expansion, production increase, market application and development trends, etc., it is estimated that the company's profit growth points will eventually come from the gradual commissioning of fund-raising projects. It is predicted that in 2013 and 2014, the company will achieve operating income of 1,168 and 1,324 million yuan, net profit attributable to the parent company is 48/56 million yuan, and the EPS is 0.28 and 0.33 yuan respectively. The corresponding P/E is 45x and 38x, giving the company an “increased holding” rating. Risk analysis: 1) Economic development is below expectations, and demand in the downstream market is sluggish; 2) Aluminum prices fluctuate greatly, affecting the gross margin level of the company's products; 3) The completion of projects under construction was delayed, and the release of production capacity fell short of expectations.

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