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Since our first coverage on December 3, the company's stock price has risen 7.55%, outperforming the CSI 300 index by 7.8 percentage points and the real estate index by 4.53 percentage points.
Comments:
The pilot project of the free trade zone and the reform of state-owned enterprises are the highlights of the new round of reform and development.
The Central Committee of the third Plenary session of the 18th CPC Central Committee put forward two major reform measures: the pilot free trade zone and the reform of state-owned enterprises. The reform of state-owned enterprises will be of great significance to improve the operational efficiency of China's state-owned enterprises and the overall efficiency of the utilization of social resources in our country. We think that it is possible to draw lessons from the "Temasek" model. The pilot and promotion of free trade zones have a far-reaching impact on China's economic and financial fields. we believe that in addition to the pilot projects of Shanghai free trade zones, pilot free trade zones in other regions may be promoted one after another.
Tianjin Free Trade Zone is expected to be approved, which is of great significance.
In December 2007, after the first phase of Tianjin Dongjiang bonded Port area was closed, the Tianjin government took the free trade port area as its future development direction and put it on the agenda. According to media reports, the plan of Tianjin Binhai New area Free Trade Zone has been reported to the State Council. We believe that there is a great probability that Tianjin Free Trade Zone will be approved, which is of great significance to the urban development of Tianjin.
The experience of Shanghai shows that the free trade zone and the reform of state-owned enterprises stimulate related stocks obviously.
From December 4 to December 3 last year, the Shanghai Free Trade Zone and the concept of state-owned enterprise reform rose far better than the index. Chinese enterprises, Pudong Jinqiao, Lujiazui, Zhangjiang Hi-Tech and Shibei Hi-tech outperformed the CSI 300 Index by 62.65%, 71.31%, 76.69%, 17.29% and 46.32% respectively. The most eye-catching performance was Waigaoqiao, with a cumulative increase of 454.6%, substantially outperforming the CSI 300 index by 440.2 percentage points.
We think the company really benefits from Tianjin Free Trade Zone, but the stock price is still not fully reflected.
The company's sea and city project, 60% of the rights and interests, with a total construction area of about 800000 square meters, is located in the center of Tianjin Dongjiang Port Free Trade Zone. Compared with other concept stocks of Tianjin Free Trade Zone, the company is the real beneficiary of Tianjin Free Trade Zone. However, compared with other investment targets, the company's share price is not fully reflected at present, and we think there is a greater possibility of catch-up.
The performance in the next three years is expected to accelerate the release, upgrading the rating to "recommended"
The company directly benefits from the establishment of Tianjin Free Trade Zone, as the actual controller of the company is Beijing SASAC, and it will also benefit from the reform of state-owned enterprises that can be expected in the future. including the benefit of "enterprises using their own land to build self-occupied commercial housing" proposed by "Beijing Seven articles" (because the majority shareholder Beijing Energy Investment Group has a lot of industrial land). The fundamentals of the company are more solid than other similar concept stocks. It is estimated that the EPS for 2013-15 will be 0.55 RMB 0.83 per share, respectively, and the forecast value of EPS for 2014 and 15 will be 32% and 25% higher than that when it was first covered, because the settlement progress of high-quality projects such as Sihe House of Lords should be better than we expected when we first covered it. The NAVPS is 11.5 yuan per share, a stock price discount of nearly 50%, and the rating is upgraded to "recommended".
