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潍柴重机(000880):公司拐点:新业务即将开始贡献业绩

銀河證券 ·  Feb 24, 2014 00:00  · Researches

The margin of safety is sufficient, and a profit inflection point has appeared. Giving a “recommended” rating, the company's performance in 2014-2015 is expected to achieve high growth. The 2013-2015 EPS was 0.20, 0.39, and 0.68 yuan, respectively, and the corresponding PE was 39, 20, and 11 times, respectively. The leading medium speed marine diesel engine is sailing from inland waterway shipping to the ocean; the company is optimistic about strategic product prospects. The company is the leading domestic marine medium speed diesel engine, and the market share of medium speed diesel engines for inland waterway shipping ranks first in the country. The company's strategic new product, a high-power medium-speed diesel engine, is equivalent to rebuilding a “new Weichai heavy engine”. Supporting demand in fields such as maritime surveillance ships, offshore vessels, and pelagic fishing vessels is rapidly increasing, and the prospects are promising. Traditional business: Demand for inland waterway shipping has stabilized, the prospects for generator sets and marine LNG power are good, and the ship market is on a recovery trend. In 2013, the number of new ship orders received by China's shipbuilding industry increased sharply by 242% over the same period last year. Inland waterways and coastal ships tend to save energy and reduce emissions on a large scale and standardization, and demand is steadily picking up. The market demand for generator sets exceeds that for marine medium speed engines, and the defense, communications, oil and gas sectors and exports will become growth highlights; future demand prospects for overseas heavy oil generator sets and gas generator sets are promising. The company has successfully developed marine gas engines and gas generator sets, and is developing marine LNG engines. The LNG ship support policy will soon be introduced. The company occupies a central position in the marine LNG engine value chain, and the launch of the LNG ship market will drive the company's LNG engine market demand. Weichai Group, the majority shareholder, has revenue exceeding 100 billion dollars; in the future, the company will benefit from the State-owned Enterprise Reform Group, which attaches great importance to company development and gives preference in resource allocation; the former chairman of Westport New Energy became the company's general manager, and the former general manager of Zhejiang Zhonggao Heavy Industries was introduced, etc. The company will benefit from the reform of state-owned enterprises in the future, and is expected to significantly improve management and operation efficiency and improve the company's EPS and valuation level. Judging from the balance sheet, the company has plenty of cash and no bank liabilities; the company has a high margin of safety, a market value of 2.1 billion yuan, 460 million yuan in cash, and no bank liabilities. By the end of 2012, a total of 1.25 billion yuan had been invested in new business. After deducting 460 million yuan in cash and 1.25 billion dollars in foreign investment, the old business was valued at about 400 million yuan. Excluding depreciation from the new business, etc., it is estimated that the 2012 EPS for the old business was about 0.52 yuan, and the 2012 EPS for the old business was about 15 times the current stock price PE. Risk warning: The progress of high-power diesel engines is falling short of expectations, and demand for inland waterway shipping is declining

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