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天晟新材(300169):风电回暖带动结构泡沫反转 后加工亦迎高速增长

銀河證券 ·  Mar 10, 2014 00:00  · Researches

Investment points: Wind power is picking up, and the PVC structural foam business will reverse due to high technical barriers, a long learning curve, and a long certification cycle. Structural foam materials are showing an oligopoly pattern. A total of 3 companies around the world have mastered large-scale production technology, and only one domestic company has mastered large-scale production technology. The company's PVC structural foam materials are mainly used in the field of wind power blades, and the products occupy 40% of the domestic market share. This business is highly related to the prosperity of the wind power industry. With the gradual easing of wind power restrictions and grid connection issues, the wind power industry is picking up as a whole, and the new installed capacity continues to grow. The prosperity level for the next 2-3 years has been determined. Judging from industry chain transmission, PVC structural foam materials are expected to rebound slowly in 2014, and their elasticity is huge. Judging from the major domestic machine and wind power blade manufacturers, profits have begun to gradually recover, and it is expected that the prices of the company's products will begin to rise in the second half of '14. Post-processing ushered in a period of rapid development. The company's post-processing products have achieved a leap from small die cutting to large structural component manufacturing. Through several years of market development, technology and customer accumulation, products have quickly entered electronic and optical production fields such as smart phones and IPDs. Important customers include key enterprises such as Sharp, Hisense, Changhong, and BOE. The company is expected to usher in a new take-off in the field of post-processing and will maintain a rapid growth trend in the next few years. The company's 14-year goal is to increase revenue by 60%-80% over 2013, and maintain gross margin at around 28%-30%. The acquisition of Xinguang Environmental Protection helps lay out the field of rail traffic. Xinguang has mastered the core technology for the production and installation of high-speed rail sound barriers, accumulated rich customer resources in the railway sound barrier industry, and has second-level construction qualifications specializing in environmental protection. After acquiring Xinguang, the company can use its channel and customer resource advantages to accelerate entry into the rail transit field, helping the company expand the share of structural foam products in the railway and rail transit fields. The company is a leading enterprise in polymer foaming materials in China, and its strong R&D capabilities and technical reserves lay the foundation for high growth. We expect the company's EPS in 14-16 (after additional dilution) to be 0.16 yuan, 0.30 yuan, and 0.46 yuan respectively, corresponding to current PE prices of 50.2x, 26.8x, and 17.3x. The company expects a high growth trend in the next few years, and we will give a recommended rating. Main risk factors: (1) wind power falls short of expectations; (2) development of new fields is blocked.

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