share_log

兴达国际(1899.HK):派息率下调引起担忧

申銀萬國 ·  Mar 27, 2014 00:00  · Researches

Xingda International's operating income in 2013 reached RMB 5.6 billion, up 6.5% year on year, while corporate rights holders' earnings reached RMB 4.2 billion, up 119.7% year on year. Earnings per share were RMB 0.27, in line with our forecast. Steady growth in 2013. The company delivered about 474,000 tons of steel tire cords in 2013, an increase of 17% over the previous year; of these, about 318,000 tons of truck wire, an increase of 18.3% over the previous year; and about 155,000 tons of passenger wire, an increase of 13.9% over the previous year. Cut steel wire was delivered about 5,400 tons, down 2% from the previous year. The overall gross margin for 2013 was 24.8%, up 4.4 percentage points from the previous year. Although the sales price of steel tire cords declined in 2013, the price of raw materials is also falling, which is the reason for the recovery in gross margin. The dividend rate has been lowered, and cash flow has tightened. The company's dividend per share in 2013 was RMB 0.13 (HK$0.16), higher than RMB 0.12 in 2012 but lower than RMB 0.16 in 2011. The corresponding payout rate fell from 59% in 2011 and 98% in 2012 to 47% in 2013. We think tightening cash flow is the main reason. The company's operating cash flow in 2013 was RMB 653 million, down 43.8% year on year, and accounts receivable were RMB 4.55 billion, up 20.6% year on year. We expect capital expenditure to rise in 2014 to increase R&D investment and meet planned capacity expansion. Therefore, we expect future interest rates to remain at current levels. Xingda International's current dividend yield of 4% is hardly as high as the dividend yield of 7% a year ago. Stay neutral. Based on a conservative forecast of sales volume and sales price, we have accordingly lowered our earnings per share forecast for 2014 by 6% from RMB 0.32 to RMB 0.30, lowered our earnings per share forecast for 2015 by 11% from RMB 0.37 to RMB 0.33, and updated our earnings per share forecast for 2016 to RMB 0.37. Based on the 2014 forecast, we lowered our target price from HK$4.06 to HK$3.8. The current price-earnings ratio of the stock price corresponding to 2014/15/16 is 10.4/9.4/8.5 times, and the price-earnings ratio for 2014/15/16 is 0.91/0.86/0.81 times, respectively. Based on a 4% downside, we maintain a neutral rating.

The translation is provided by third-party software.


The above content is for informational or educational purposes only and does not constitute any investment advice related to Futu. Although we strive to ensure the truthfulness, accuracy, and originality of all such content, we cannot guarantee it.
    Write a comment