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味千中国(538.HK):一季度同店销售强劲

申銀萬國 ·  Apr 14, 2014 00:00  · Researches

Incident: Ajisen announced that its first-quarter same-store sales growth rate in mainland China was 5.1%, Hong Kong was 1.1%, and overall fast casual restaurant sales increased 2.1% year over year. Better than similar companies. Due to the slowdown in macroeconomic development and the government's clean policy, data from the National Bureau of Statistics showed that the cumulative revenue of restaurant enterprises above the limit in January-February 2014 recorded a 0.5% year-on-year decline, reaching 127.2 billion yuan. This is the first time that this figure has declined. Therefore, we think Ajisen's same-store sales growth rate is stronger compared to other companies of its peers. Of the 5.1% same-store sales growth rate, since more than 60% of stores have increased menu prices by 5% since mid-January, we expect the customer unit price increase to contribute about half, while the other half is mainly due to the increase in table turnover. Plans to restart stores in 2014. The net number of stores closed by the company in mainland China in 2013 was 28, reaching 24 in the first half of 2013, resulting in a sales growth rate lower than the same store sales growth rate in the first quarter. Ajisen opened about 7 new stores in the first quarter and achieved satisfactory sales performance in most of the new stores. We expect the number of new stores to reach 80/100/120 each year for the next three years. Furthermore, Ajisen has already obtained the qualification to open a UCC (a Japanese coffee shop brand) store in mainland China. We look forward to a synergy between these two brands due to rent sharing and meeting the different needs of consumers over different periods of time. Online and offline programs will be implemented. In late April, the company will enhance customer experience and improve operating efficiency through payment cooperation with WeChat and Alibaba. At the same time, in the second half of the year, the company will adopt a takeout food delivery service through cooperative expenses with AmoPoint. We expect these solutions to improve table turnover rates and sales efficiency. The best Hong Kong-listed restaurant companies have maintained an increase in holdings rating. Due to a more careful plan for opening stores in an uncertain macroeconomic environment, we lowered our 14-year earnings per share forecast of 8.4% to HK$0.3, our earnings per share for the year 15 to HK$0.38, and introduced a 16-year earnings per share forecast of HK$0.47. We received a new target price of HK$8.3, corresponding to 1.1 times PEG and a three-year compound profit growth rate of 24%. Taking into account the 18.4% increase corresponding to the current stock price, we maintain an increase in holdings rating.

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