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巨轮股份(002031)2013年年报点评:13年业绩增长符合预期 订单饱和确保14年业绩无忧

東莞證券 ·  Apr 3, 2014 00:00  · Researches

Incident: The company released its annual report on the evening of March 27, stating that 2013 revenue was 901 million yuan, up 16.05% year on year; during the reporting period, the company achieved net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies of 168 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 50.29%. After deducting non-recurring profit and loss, net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies was 159 million yuan, an increase of 58.47% year on year. Basic earnings per share were 0.37 (yuan/share), up 37.77% year over year, in line with our previous expectations for the company's annual results. Curing machine revenue increased significantly, and the tire mold business achieved steady growth. Among the main business, the vulcanizer business contributed greatly to the increase in the company's performance in '13. Its revenue increased by 31.62% compared to 2012, and gross profit increased 56%. The main reason was that 130 new units were built in 13 to reach production capacity, reaching production capacity of 300 hydraulic vulcanizers per year. In addition, orders were also quite plentiful, so that the high growth in hydraulic vulcanizer revenue continued. On the other hand, the company's tire mold business also achieved steady growth. Revenue increased 14.04% year over year, and gross profit increased 4%. We believe that with the steady increase in automobile sales and ownership in China and the combination of factors where there is still plenty of room to increase the tire radial conversion rate, the current boom in the tire manufacturing industry is still quite high. The gross margin decreased slightly, and the financial expenses ratio dropped significantly. The company's 13-year gross profit margin was 35.46%, down 1.28 percentage points from the same period last year. It was mainly affected by labor costs and manufacturing costs, but it was still about 10 percentage points higher than the industry average, indicating that the company performed well in terms of bargaining power and cost control; the cost ratio for the period was 14.97%, down 5.16 percentage points from the same period last year. Among them, the financial expense ratio, which dropped significantly, was a sharp drop of 35.29% compared to the same period last year. The main reason was the reduction in corporate convertible bond redemptions and loans, which led to a sharp drop in interest expenses. Orders for hydraulic vulcanizers are sufficient, and performance growth in 2014 is guaranteed. The expansion of the company's hydraulic vulcanizer production capacity was completed in the second half of '13, and the peak of deliveries reached in the fourth quarter, indicating that the newly built production capacity had completed a decline in production capacity. On the other hand, orders for the full year of '14 have now been filled. Taken together, it is expected to expand the elastic coefficient of the company's vulcanizer performance. Overall, at present, the penetration rate of hydraulic vulcanizers in China is only 20%, far below the level of 60%-70% in developed countries in Europe, America, and Japan. As a leading domestic manufacturer of hydraulic vulcanizers, the company is bound to benefit first from the trend of vulcanizer upgrading. Demand for the tire mold business is unabated and is expected to continue to grow steadily. Domestic automobile production and ownership continue to increase, and the local production trend of foreign tire production giants is also driving demand for tire molds. The company has stable supply relationships with major tire manufacturers at home and abroad, and the characteristics of the tire mold industry determine that once a supply relationship is formed, the cost of change is high, so it will remain stable for quite a long period of time. Therefore, we believe that the tire mold business is expected to maintain steady growth in 2014, and the robot business is ready to go. The company's industrial robot business has made breakthroughs in a series of fields such as RV speed reducers, complete machines, and unit control systems. We believe that with the company's experience and advantages in tire manufacturing, we can hope to achieve the first breakthrough in integrating automated production in this industry. Once marketization is successful, it will greatly enhance the company's valuation center. Maintain a “Recommended” rating. In the medium to long term, the popularity of tire molds and post-processing equipment is still high, and the company is still undervalued in terms of robot concept stocks. Earnings per share are expected to be 0.49 yuan and 0.52, respectively, and the corresponding PE is 15.8 times and 14.9 times, respectively. Maintain a “Recommended” rating. Risk warning. The boom in the downstream tire market has declined, and the progress of robot projects has fallen short of expectations.

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