Weichai heavy Machinery (000880) Quarterly report comment: large machine orders are abundant; the company benefits from the construction of golden waterways and standardization subsidies for inland river ships in the Yangtze River Economic Belt.

銀河證券 · May 5, 2014 00:00 · Researches

1.事件

公司发布公告,一季度公司实现收入5.89亿元,同比增长29.51%;净利润1762万元,同比增长8.91%;EPS为0.06元。

2.我们的分析与判断

(一)业绩拐点显现;收入增速明显高于利润增速

公司13Q1-14Q1收入增速为-8%、1%、6%、10%、30%;净利润增速为-44%、-40%、-44%、-47%、9%。公司在2013年二季度收入增速出现拐点,净利润在2014年一季度出现拐点。公司收入增速明显高于净利润增速,2013年净利率1.7%,一季度为3%,未来业绩增长弹性大。

2013年公司业绩实际情况较好。2013年公司计提资产减值损失5601万元(同比增加3801万元;主要为原材料跌价准备计提4004万元)、销售费用达到6075万元(同比增加3330万元,主要为维修服务费和生产许可费增加所致)、计提折旧达到1.01亿元(同比增加2228万元)。

(二)传统业务受益黄金水道建设、内河船舶补贴

近期国家推动依托黄金水道建设长江经济带,将加强航道疏浚治理,提高通航标准,推广标准化船型,增强长江运能。财政部印发《内河船型标准化补贴资金管理办法》(见附录)。据计算,部分船型补贴额度达新船造价30-50%,力度很大;LNG船舶补贴力度更大。公司内河航运中速柴油机市占率居国内第一,未来将明显受益;传统业务回升将超预期。

(三)战略性新产品大机订单充裕,未来前景乐观

一季度公司战略性新产品大功率中速柴油机(大机)共获取新接订单4424万元;一季度末大机手持订单4.1亿元。2013年,公司大机新接订单4.5亿元,手持订单3.9亿元。如果按照每台500万元均价测算,我们判断公司一季度末大机在手订单超过80台;大机制造周期大致在8-10月左右,我们判断公司今年大机交付量将超过80台,金额超过4亿元。

(四)发电设备业务全面战略转型,未来潜力很大

发电机组市场需求远程船用中速机。公司大力拓展国内外大功率燃油、燃气电站市场的业务。竞争对手中高重工兄弟公司中高动力近年来海外发电设备订单高达30亿元;公司现执行总经理为原中高重工总经理。

3.投资建议

公司2013年净利率仅1.7%,未来将受益国企改革,业绩弹性大。

预计2014-2016年EPS为0.35/0.52/0.75元,PE为24/16/11倍;维持“推荐”。风险提示:大功率柴油机进展低于预期、内河航运需求下滑风险。

1. Event

The company announced that revenue in the first quarter was 589 million yuan, an increase of 29.51% over the same period last year, and net profit was 17.62 million yuan, an increase of 8.91% over the same period last year.

two。 Our analysis and judgment

(1) the performance inflection point appears; the growth rate of income is significantly higher than that of profit growth.

The growth rate of 13Q1-14Q1 revenue is-8%, 1%, 6%, 10%, 30%, and the growth rate of net profit is-44%,-40%,-44%,-47%, 9%. The company experienced an inflection point in revenue growth in the second quarter of 2013 and an inflection point in net profit in the first quarter of 2014. The growth rate of the company's revenue is significantly higher than that of net profit, with a net interest rate of 1.7% in 2013 and 3% in the first quarter.

The company's performance in 2013 is actually good. In 2013, the company made provision for asset impairment loss of 56.01 million yuan (an increase of 38.01 million yuan over the same period last year; provision for a decline in the price of raw materials of 40.04 million yuan), sales expenses of 60.75 million yuan (an increase of 33.3 million yuan over the same period last year). Mainly due to the increase in maintenance service fees and production license fees), depreciation reached 101 million yuan (an increase of 22.28 million yuan over the same period last year).

(2) traditional business benefits from the construction of golden waterways and subsidies for inland river vessels

Recently, the state has promoted the construction of the Yangtze River economic belt relying on the golden waterway, which will strengthen the dredging of waterways, improve navigation standards, promote standardized ship types, and enhance the transport capacity of the Yangtze River. The Ministry of Finance issued the measures for the Administration of subsidy funds for the Standardization of Inland River ships (see appendix). It is calculated that the subsidy for some ship types reaches 30-50% of the cost of the new ship, which is very strong; the subsidy for LNG ships is even greater. The company ranks first in the domestic market share of medium-speed diesel engines in inland shipping and will obviously benefit in the future; the traditional business will pick up faster than expected.

(3) abundant orders for strategic new products and optimistic prospects for the future

In the first quarter, the company's strategic new products, high-power medium-speed diesel engines (mainframes), received a total of 44.24 million yuan in new orders; at the end of the first quarter, large machine hand-held orders totaled 410 million yuan. In 2013, the company received 450 million yuan in new orders and 390 million yuan in hand orders. If calculated according to the average price of 5 million yuan per unit, we judge that the company's order for large machines at the end of the first quarter is more than 80 units; the manufacturing cycle of large machines is about August-October, and we judge that the company will deliver more than 80 sets of large machines this year, with an amount of more than 400 million yuan.

(4) Comprehensive strategic transformation of power generation equipment business, with great potential in the future.

The market demand for generator sets is for long-distance marine medium-speed machines. The company makes great efforts to expand the business of high-power oil and gas power station markets at home and abroad. In recent years, the order of overseas power generation equipment of competitor Zhonggao heavy Industry Brothers has reached 3 billion yuan. The executive general manager of the company is the former general manager of Zhonggao heavy Industry.

3. Investment suggestion

The company's net interest rate in 2013 is only 1.7%. In the future, it will benefit from the reform of state-owned enterprises and have great performance flexibility.

It is estimated that the EPS from 2014 to 2016 will be 0.35max 0.52 RMB, and the PE will be 2014 times that of 24-16-11; maintain the "recommendation". Risk hint: the progress of high-power diesel engines is lower than expected, and the risk of decline in inland shipping demand.

The translation is provided by third-party software.

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潍柴重机(000880)一季报点评：大机订单充裕;公司受益长江经济带黄金水道建设、内河船型标准化补贴

Weichai heavy Machinery (000880) Quarterly report comment: large machine orders are abundant; the company benefits from the construction of golden waterways and standardization subsidies for inland river ships in the Yangtze River Economic Belt.

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