The company is a rich manufacturer of chemical prescription drugs. The company is mainly engaged in the R & D, production and sales of chemical prescription drug formulations. by the end of January 2015, the company has obtained a total of 84 preparation varieties and 180 drug production approval documents, with a wide range of products. In the past three years, the compound growth rates of income and net profit belonging to the parent company are 10.7% and 25.7% respectively, and many of the company's main products are among the top three in the domestic market share.
Differentiated competitive variety layout and agent sales model have full stamina. The company pays attention to differential competition and scarcity on the product line, and adopts the agency mode of integrating excellent dealer resources in sales, on the one hand, it can effectively avoid the fierce product competition and market price reduction behavior, and ensure the high profit of the main varieties. At the same time, it is more flexible in the way of sales. Through professional dealer integration, it magnifies its own sales capacity and shortens the laying time of the market channel after the product is listed. At the same time, the development of new products is no longer limited to specific disease areas, but is more conducive to mining some high-profit varieties with large market capacity and less competition, and a flexible business model will be more conducive to seizing the rapid growth of the domestic pharmaceutical market. the growth of enterprises is full of stamina.
The company's main varieties account for a high proportion of the domestic market share, and the expansion of the grass-roots medical market is expected to bring rapid growth. At present, the company's main varieties are related to parenteral nutrition drugs, anti-infective drugs and digestive system drugs, of which alanyl glutamine for injection and Yanhuning injection rank second in the domestic market share. Omeprazole sodium for injection ranks third in China. Among them, alanyl-glutamine and omeprazole rely on the company's core process technology patents, the overall competitiveness of products is outstanding, the price and market maintenance ability is strong. At present, a total of 13 varieties of the company have been listed in the national base drug catalogue. with the expansion of the grass-roots medical market promoted by graded diagnosis and treatment policies, the company's existing base drug varieties such as omeprazole sodium for injection are expected to usher in a period of rapid growth. drive the company's performance to grow at a high speed.
The reserve varieties are gradually entering the harvest period and are expected to be released in the next few years. At present, the company has about 27 new drug varieties and 117 generic drug varieties are applying for clinical or production approval. It is expected that in the past two years, a number of high-quality competitive varieties, such as acetylcysteine for injection, gangliosides and tinidazole for injection, will be put on the market one after another. We expect that the above varieties are expected to achieve an annual sales increase of more than 400 million in the next five years. At the same time, the company relies on the core technology and patent barriers in ultra-fine comminution, new crystal development and other aspects, and reserves a number of large varieties such as Pragrel tablets / capsules, which are expected to exceed 1 billion yuan in the future market scale. it is expected that in the next 3-5 years, the company will gradually enter the harvest period of new products, relying on the volume of new products to form the steady growth of the company.
Risk factors: drug price reduction risk; raw material price fluctuation risk; new product listing does not meet expectations.
Profit forecast, valuation and investment rating: we are optimistic about the company's differentiated competition model in the generic drug preparation market. It is predicted that the company's EPS in 2015-2017 will be 0.750.94x1.16 yuan respectively, which is 38 times higher than the company's average PE in 2015. Considering the competitive advantages of the company's differentiated product dosage forms and differentiated new product layout in the market, at the same time, the reserve variety market is broad, giving the company 42 times PE in 2015. The target price is 31.50 yuan, giving the "overweight" rating for the first time.