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中国天溢控股(0756.HK)深度研究:NFC果汁蓝海行业的先行者

興業證券 ·  Aug 21, 2015 00:00  · Researches

Key investment points NFC, as a juice consumption upgrade product, is on the eve of the explosion, and the market capacity is expected to exceed 10 billion dollars: the domestic juice drink market is 100 billion, of which 100% juice market is 30 billion, the vast majority is traditional FC (concentrated reduction) juice. NFC is fresher and healthier, and is an upgraded replacement for FC juice: US NFC accounts for 60% of juice consumption, China accounts for only 2%; the US consumes 10L per capita, and China only 0.01L. The long-term market capacity of NFC juice in China will exceed 100 billion yuan. China's juice consumption is being upgraded. In an environment where the number of juice drinks containing fruit juice is growing in single digits, 100% juice has maintained an increase of 20-25%. Compared with the high-end water industry, the consumer groups and consumption frequency of the two are quite similar, and the short-term NFC juice industry space is expected to reach 10 billion yuan. The NFC industry has high barriers, and only a few players are bound to survive: NFC barriers come from raw materials and cold chain management capabilities, making it difficult for traditional (room temperature) juice companies to enter the NFC juice industry in a short period of time. Imported brands are difficult to spread domestically due to tariffs and shelf life. With the introduction of the national standard for the NFC industry next year, the industry will be further regulated, and some FC juices that mislead consumers with packaging will be withdrawn from the market. In 2016, the company will become the leader of NFC orange juice, with a number of first-mover advantages: 1. The company that exclusively adds fruit grains (pouches) to orange juice, and the product taste is highly differentiated; 2. Executives are experienced in the beverage industry. Operation directors and sales executives are from Mars and Huiyuan, and R&D directors are from Weiquan, familiar with how the juice market works; 3. The company's dealers and operation team have rich experience in cold chain operations. Next year, sales will exceed zero, and the fruit shop will rise to the top position in the industry. The company has a clear marketing strategy and precise marketing for high-end consumers: products target high-end white-collar workers, etc., sell in Tier 1 and 2 cities, use high-end supermarkets and special channels such as bakeries, coffee shops, and movie theaters as a base (full entry into Starbucks next year), and promote word of mouth through e-commerce. The marketing strategy uses ground promotion such as sampling, tasting, and WeChat sharing to directly contact target consumers to achieve precise marketing and word-of-mouth marketing. For the first time, an “increase in holdings” rating was given: the NFC juice market is vast, and the company has strong advantages. We are optimistic about the development prospects of the company's new business, and recommend closely tracking the progress of the new business. It is predicted that the company's net profit growth rates in 2015-2017 will be -42%, 35%, and 91%; EPS will be 0.05, 0.07, and 0.13, respectively, and corresponding PE will be 15X, 11X, and 6X respectively. For 2016 15XPE, the target price is 1.24 yuan. The target price is 29% of the current price.

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