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中国武夷(000797)调研简报:大通州核心标的 武夷花园项目大有可为

海通證券 ·  Aug 4, 2015 00:00  · Researches

Key investment points: The company's real estate business is developing steadily. The company currently has a total of 15 projects, distributed over a wide area, in Beijing, Nanjing, Chongqing, Changchun, and Pingping. The total land area reserve of the enterprise reached 1.67 million square meters. Among them, the Wuyi Garden South District project, located in Tongzhou District of Beijing, has a large construction area and plenty of room for appreciation. It is currently the most important project in the company's land storage. Leading the “Datong State” concept, the Wuyi Garden South Area project is up for sale. 1) Introduction to the basic situation of the project. The company obtained the Wuyi Garden South Area project located in Tongzhou District in 2003. The total planned construction area of the project is about 1 million square meters. Since the acquisition of the project, work such as the commencement of construction has been delayed due to changes in government plans and other reasons. In 2014, the company re-applied for the land planning plan and received approval from the Beijing Municipal Housing and Construction Department, and all procedures were legal and complete. Judging from the on-site inspection, the project has already begun to enter the foundation construction stage. According to normal progress, it is expected that actual sales will begin in 2016. 2) It will directly benefit from the future construction of the Tongzhou sub-center, and the potential value of the region will continue to be upgraded. On July 14, in an interview with reporters, the director of the Beijing Municipal Planning Commission made it clear that the orderly transfer of administrative institutions belonging to Beijing to Tongzhou will be promoted. We believe that Tongzhou, as a key location in Tongqu in the three provinces of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Province, has a unique location advantage, well-developed infrastructure, and is blessed with dual hub attributes. There is no doubt about its central position in carrying out and relieving Beijing's non-capital functions, and the future will usher in historic development opportunities. 3) The surrounding area of the company's Wuyi Garden project has been determined as reserved land for government offices. Judging from the field survey, the demolition work in 17 villages is currently progressing in an orderly manner. According to some previous government plans, land supply for 7 villages was required to be completed by the end of September 2015, and the demolition of all 17 villages must be completed by the end of 2016. Furthermore, the first batch of government administrative relocations is expected to be completed in 2017. Therefore, based on the construction schedule, we expect that the confirmation of the relocation of the first batch of administrative departments in Beijing will be completed by the end of the 3rd quarter. Currently, there are no new houses for sale in locations close to the project. The average price of the R&F project, which is relatively close to the main city, is over 30,000 square meters. The purchase price of second-hand housing in Peony Garden in Wuyi Garden opposite the project is 25,500 yuan per square meter. Considering taxes, fees, intermediary fees, etc., the average price of second-hand housing around the project is around 30,000 yuan per square meter. Considering the current basic determination of the surrounding area plan, we believe that the housing prices of this project have obvious room for appreciation in the future. Investment advice. We expect the company's earnings per share to be $0.59 and $0.85 in 2015 and 2016, respectively. The company closed at 24.97 yuan on August 3, corresponding to 42.32 times PE in 2015 and 29.37 times PE in 2016, considering that the company has a “one road, one belt” concept and directly benefits the future development scale of Tongzhou. Once Wuyi Garden is launched, the capital situation and fundamentals of the enterprise will fundamentally change. The company is the leading target of the “Chase State” concept. According to the current RAN V37.39 yuan as the target price of the enterprise, it is given an “increase in holdings” rating. Uncertainty factor. The speed of government relocation and project development progress fell short of expectations.

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