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申通地铁(600834)深度报告:主辅并重 多重催化-从新铁和港铁看申通

長江證券 ·  Aug 31, 2015 00:00  · Researches

Company profile and horizontal comparison: Focus on subway operation, single business structure Shentong Metro is a local state-owned enterprise in Shanghai that focuses on subway operations. With SMRT (Singapore Metro) and MTR Corporation as reference targets, the company has significant room for improvement in the local market share of the subway operation business, the richness of the revenue structure, and the level of single ticket prices. Singapore subway model: Subway+commerce is the core, and with a high degree of marketization, the Singapore Metro implements subway+commercial as the core business model. The subway business uses an operating model of splitting construction and operation: the government authorizes at low prices, and enterprises bear their own profits and losses; subway fares apply a restrained fare adjustment mechanism: the formula is transparent and takes into account the interests of enterprises and the public, but the government has a veto power. Furthermore, the commercial leasing and advertising business carried out by SMRT mainly relies on the company's various transferable resources within the 137.6-kilometer subway line. The compound annual revenue growth rate of these two businesses over the past 11 years has reached 16%, and gross margin has remained above 60%. MTR company model: Subway+commercial and property portfolio, fully market-based operation The MTR company's business is a combination of subway+commercial and property, and operates entirely according to the market-based approach. The subway business uses a public-private partnership operation model: the government is responsible for construction+operation, so that the property feeds back subway operations. Subway ticket prices use an adjustment mechanism that can be added or reduced: a completely transparent price adjustment mechanism, established based on the extent of changes in prices and wages. Other than that, 1) Station business: “Guangzhou Commerce” is integrated into the trinity, with high profits cashing in added value; 2) Property business: Mainly retail properties, which feed back subway operations. Where will the Shentong subway go: equal emphasis on main and auxiliary systems, and multiple catalysis. We expect the company's EPS for 2015-2017 to be 0.15 yuan, 0.22 yuan, and 0.25 yuan, respectively. The future highlights of the Shentong Metro can be summarized as the main and auxiliary industries, with multiple uses of catalysis: 1) the injection or extension of the auxiliary industry, which is currently still under the group's “Guangdong Commerce” and property management rights, which are probably the biggest focus of the company's future; 2) the increase in the main business, the growth effect brought about by the opening of Disney in 2016; 3) the increase in the main business, the injection of other subway assets within the group; 4) the possibility that subway ticket prices will increase. In summary, we gave the company an “increase in wealth” rating.

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