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中电远达(600292)点评:业绩增速放缓在预期之中 利空出尽静待反转

國金證券 ·  Oct 13, 2015 00:00  · Researches

Performance Overview CLP Yuanda announced its results forecast for the first three quarters of 2015 on the evening of the 12th. Revenue for the first three quarters was 2.66 billion yuan, up 4.6% year on year, total profit was 410 million yuan, up 45.2% year on year, and earnings per share were 0.45 yuan. The company's performance is generally in line with our expectations. Operating analysis Overall business conditions deteriorated in the 3rd quarter: revenue for the third quarter was about 920 million yuan, down 26% year on year, and total profit was 104 million yuan, down 41% year on year. The deterioration in overall business conditions reflects the slump in the company's traditional desulfurization and denitrification EPC business and a sharp contraction in the catalyst business. In our big report on the air treatment industry released on June 15, we have predicted that the catalyst business as a whole will not be able to achieve the rapid development trend of the previous two years. The sharp contraction in related businesses of major manufacturers in the industry also confirms the reality that the industry is undergoing a painful period of transformation. We predict that the company's catalyst business will shrink by about 50% in the second half of the year, and the EPS business will grow at around 10%. BOT will continue to be the main support point for performance: in the performance forecast, the company stated that “the increase in installed franchise capacity led to a year-on-year increase in feed-in power, and the company's total operating revenue increased 4.59% year on year,” confirming what we pointed out in the June 15 in-depth company research report that the main growth point of the company's short- and medium-term performance will be the development of the BOT business, especially in the context of increased overall competition in the industry. Project support from the parent company will be particularly critical for the company to survive the cold winter in the industry. The short-term revenue benefits from non-main businesses have been exhausted; in the long run, we still look at ultra-net emissions and nuclear solid waste treatment businesses: The sharp increase in the company's net profit in the first three quarters was mainly due to investment income of 180 million yuan benefiting from the company's reduction in Southwest Securities holdings, which is difficult to replicate in the short term. We believe that the company's long-term focus still depends on the substantial implementation of the national ultra-clean emission subsidy policy and the progress of the nuclear solid waste treatment business. Considering China's vigorous promotion of nuclear power, there is still great room for future integrated nuclear solid waste treatment business. Profit adjustment We expect the company to achieve a net profit forecast of 369/351 million for 2015/2016. We believe that as the only environmental listed company under the China Power Investment Group, the company still has huge room for state-owned enterprise reform and nuclear solid waste business expansion with the support of the parent company. Currently, the company is in a critical period of traditional business transformation, and we are optimistic about the company's future development space. The investment recommendation is that the current stock price corresponds to the diluted 30.7x15PE/16.1x15EV/EBITDA, maintaining an increase rating, and the target price is 24.7 yuan.

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