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大连电瓷(002606)中报点评:三季度有望批量确认收

渤海證券 ·  Sep 1, 2015 00:00  · Researches

Performance for the first half of the year declined. The company recently released its semi-annual report, achieving operating income of 182 million yuan, a year-on-year decline of 33.13%, net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies of -13 million yuan, and basic earnings per share of -0.07 million yuan. The main reason for the company's losses in the first half of the year was that revenue could not be confirmed in a timely manner due to UHV projects and delays in delivery of overseas orders. The third quarter is expected to confirm receipt in batches. Delivery delays in the first half of the year are mainly due to two reasons: firstly, this year's insulator delivery added the painting process, and insulator manufacturers first tried to encounter some conditions, which delayed the delivery period; second, the UHV construction progress of the State Grid could not keep up with the pace of approval and construction for a while, so there were delays in requesting goods. The company actually carried out intensive production in the first half of the year, mainly the “Huainan - Shanghai North Ring Road”, “Ningdong - Shaoxing”, and “Mengxi - Shandong” routes approved in 2014. The three lines won a total of 262 million yuan for porcelain insulators. These three lines have already been shipped one after another in the third quarter, so it is a probable event that revenue was confirmed centrally in the third quarter. In addition, overseas deliveries are also improving, and it is estimated that revenue of tens of millions of dollars can also be determined. Therefore, the company's three-quarter report will have outstanding performance. Meanwhile, the “Mengxi - Tianjin South” UHV exchange project, which won the bid in August, is expected to be delivered in the fourth quarter. The UHV industry continues to accelerate. The UHV industry is currently one of the few national strategic engineering projects, and there is strong certainty about the development of the industry. In the first half of 2015, four UHV lines from Mengxi to Tianjin, Yuheng to Weifang, Jiuquan to Xiangtan, and Jinbei to Jiangsu were approved for commencement. According to the State Grid's plan at the beginning of the year, there were a total of 14 “six traffic and eight direct lines” in 2015. It is expected that three UHV lines from Ximeng to Taizhou, Shanghai Miao to Shandong, and northwest Yunnan to Guangdong will also be approved for commencement one after another. It is expected that the industry will maintain an average of 5 approved construction volumes per year in the next few years, and enterprises in the relevant industrial chain will enjoy a high level of prosperity. The profit forecasting and investment rating company's UHV production capacity in the Double D port area and the production capacity of the Fujian factory for conventional products still have room for further release. The company will fully enjoy the development dividends brought by the UHV industry. We expect the company's EPS for 15-17 to be 0.50, 0.79, and 1.22 yuan/share, maintaining an increase in holdings rating.

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