Incident: China Tianyi Holdings released its annual report. The 2015 FY achieved revenue of 470 million yuan, -17.3% year-on-year, and realized profit of 78.025 million yuan, or -33.2% year-on-year. Comment: The decline in revenue in the first half of the year slowed, and NFC juice drove the overall growth of the orange juice business. In the first half of this year, the company achieved revenue of 274 million yuan, YoY -5.57%. Compared with 2014 H2YoY -29.5%, the downward trend has clearly slowed down. NFC juice achieved revenue of 13.29 million yuan in March-June, 7.5 million in July, and over 10 million in August. Sales increased rapidly due to rapid channel distribution. Affected by the impact of imported orange juice from Brazil and the upgrading of domestic consumption, the 2015 FY sold 27,000 tons of concentrated juice, -12.6% year-on-year; the average price was 102,000 yuan, -9.3% year-on-year. Some fresh oranges are used to produce NFC juice, so 2015 H1 fresh oranges sold 52.24 million yuan, -13.6% year on year. Orange sales this fiscal year were 57,000 tons, -29.3% year-on-year, while the price of fresh oranges was 2,600 yuan/ton, +23.8% year-on-year, partially offsetting the impact of the decline in sales volume. The company's NFC orange juice business is running smoothly. It plans to achieve 300 million sales next year and 2.4 billion sales in 2020. By mid-2016, the company plans to achieve the goal of distributing 1,500 premium channels, 50 e-commerce channels, 3,000 special channels, and 5,500 convenience stores and street stores. The total market capacity of all channels reached 640 million yuan. Optimistic estimates suggest that if the company's market share reaches 50%, it can achieve revenue of 320 million yuan. The company's mid-term goal is to achieve 2.4 billion dollars in sales by 2020, with a market share of 40%. Currently, in the upstream production and storage process, construction has basically been completed at one time. The company's debt ratio is low, and there is sufficient cash to explore the market; the cash flow inflection point is now, and the ability to generate cash will be greatly improved in the future. The company's balance ratio is 33.1%, net debt ratio is about 23% after deducting 600 million yuan in cash on account, and its finances are very stable. A low level of debt ensures that the company has enough cash to explore the market. Since all major fixed asset expenses have already been completed, the investment cash flow has been adjusted from -290 million yuan last year to 9.07 million yuan this year. In the future, the company's ability to generate cash will be greatly improved, and it will resume dividends at an opportunity. Profit forecast and rating: We forecast the company's revenue for the 16-18 year of 665 million, 888 million, 1,155 million, YoY 41%, 33%, 30%, net profit of 104 million, 222 million, 347 million, YoY 34%, 113%, 57%, EPS 0.08, 0.16, and 0.25 yuan, corresponding to PE10X/5X/3X, maintaining an “increase in holdings” rating. Risk warning: Market expansion falls short of expectations