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大连电瓷(002606)季报点评:业绩逆势而升 未来前景看好

華泰證券 ·  Oct 29, 2015 00:00  · Researches

Key investment points: The company released its 2015 three-quarter report: During the reporting period, the company achieved operating income of RMB 229.7813 million, an increase of 50.42% over the previous year; realized net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies of RMB 12.3732 million, an increase of 246.59% over the previous year; and achieved an EPS of 0.15 yuan/share. In the first three quarters of this year, the company achieved operating income of 41,1613 million yuan and net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies of 17.259 million yuan, an increase of 4.37% over the previous year. The problem of delivery delays was solved, and losses were turned into profits in an environment where the electricity situation was declining. In the first half of this year, due to delays in the construction progress of the three UHV lines of the State Grid “Huainan - Shanghai”, “Ningdong - Shaoxing”, and “Ximeng - Tianjin-Shandong”, and the State Grid's new requirements for insulator coating, the company's UHV line orders were delayed, causing the company to lose money in the first half of the year. At present, delivery of UHV orders began one after another in the third quarter, and the company's net profit recovered from a loss of 13.44 million yuan in the interim report to 17.26 million yuan in the third quarter report. Furthermore, as the company's delivery schedule accelerated, the company's gross margin rebounded from 26.48% of the interim report to a normal level of 31.52%. The UHV industry continues to heat up and will enter the peak construction period next year. Nine of the 12 UHV lines in the National Energy Administration's “Air Pollution Prevention and Control Action Plan” have officially started construction. It is expected that the remaining lines will be put into construction one after another by the first quarter of next year, and 16-17 will be the first peak period for UHV construction. The company announced on October 24 that it won the bid for the State Grid Jiuquan-Hunan and Jinbei-Nanjing UHVDC project disc-shaped porcelain insulators package 4, and won the bid for 68,550 porcelain insulators in advance, with a pre-bid amount of about 40 million yuan. At the end of 2015, tenders for routes such as Zhundong-Chengdu and Zhundong-Huadong will also begin. It is predicted that the company's UHV orders in 2016 will exceed 300 million yuan, with full performance guarantees. Management changes and equity incentives arrived as scheduled, and the company entered a period of steady development. The company issued an announcement on September 29 to launch the company's first equity incentive plan. It grants restricted stock incentives to the company's 7 executives and 25 core technicians. The number of incentives does not exceed 4 million shares, and the grant price is 5.67 yuan/share. The company issued an announcement on October 22. Dou Gang, the current general manager of the company, will succeed Liu Guixue, the founder of the company, as chairman of the company. This is in line with our September forecast. The company has also formally formed a second-generation professional management team with an equity incentive structure, which has initially rejuvenated the management team and made it easier for the company to tap new profit growth points in the new wave of power construction. Profit forecast: Starting in 2016, the progress of UHV construction will gradually accelerate, and at the same time, the distribution network renovation plan will be implemented, and the porcelain insulator market will expand. The company is expected to achieve EPS of 0.20, 0.31, and 0.49 yuan respectively in 2015-2017, corresponding to dynamic PE of 70, 46, and 29 times, respectively, and maintain the “increased holdings” rating. Risk warning: UHV construction progress has fallen short of expectations, and the extent of overseas market development has fallen short of expectations.

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