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中房地产(000736)季报点评:经营业绩下滑、中交地产平台整合预期

安信證券 ·  Nov 2, 2015 00:00  · Researches

Incidents: The company released its three-quarter report. The first three quarters achieved revenue of 379.72 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 25.8%; realized net profit of 21.1 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 78%; and basic earnings per share of 0.07 yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 78.1%. Performance was slightly lower than expected, mainly settlement items fell short of expectations. Gross margin recovery, debt structure optimization: 1) Gross margin increased sharply, and the three-fee ratio declined slightly: The company's gross sales margin for the first three quarters was about 39.8%, a sharp increase of 24.7% from 31.9% in the first three quarters of last year; the sales period expense ratio was about 20.6%, a slight decrease of 2.3% from 21.08% last year. Among them, financial expenses fell about 43.33% from last year, benefiting from falling loan interest rates and increasing bank deposit interest income. 2) Loan scale increased, interest rates on bond issuance decreased, and cash flow improved: the current balance ratio of the company was 63.14%, up 27.14% from last year; on September 30, the company issued corporate bonds of RMB 700 million, with a coupon interest rate of 4.22%, for a period of five years; after excluding advance accounts, the balance ratio was 51.4%, and the debt structure was healthy; net operating cash inflows to the company rose to -2.32% in the third quarter from -209.65% in the same period last year to -2.32%, a sharp increase over the previous year, mainly due to a decrease in land payments by the project company and acceptance of the current period Funds, transaction payments made by the project company in the previous period, and Zhaojia Company, a holding subsidiary of the company, paid execution fees in the lawsuit in the previous period. There was a slight decline in the company's operations, and leapfrog development still required group support: the company's performance in the third quarter report was average, and revenue and profit for the first three quarters declined year-on-year, mainly due to a decrease in the company's current housing delivery area; however, the project company's advance payment surged by 142.93%. Once it enters the settlement cycle in the future, the company's performance will rise steadily; the company still needs the abundant resources and accelerated integration of the China Communications Group to reduce operating fluctuations. The integration of China Communications Group's three major real estate platforms is expected to be upgraded: 1) The strength of China Communications Group is strong, and the total asset size is increasing year by year: as of the first half of 2015, the total assets of China Communications Construction reached 804.7 billion yuan, up 3.12% from the previous month; operating income reached 1019.577 billion yuan, an increase of 37% over the previous month, and the group's operations were steady. 2) The three major real estate platforms, China Housing has become the only domestic listing platform: China Communications Group currently owns the three major real estate platform companies of China Real Estate, China Communications Real Estate, and Greentown Real Estate. Among them, China Real Estate became the only real estate platform of the China Stock Exchange Group listed on A-shares. 3) Group integration will accelerate, and corporate value will be demonstrated: In the future, CCCC Real Estate Group will continue to deepen integration, actively exert its overall advantages, further accelerate the business integration between CCCC Real Estate and China Real Estate; speed up the construction of overseas real estate platforms, and actively start the overseas real estate market. Investment advice: Affected by the settlement cycle, the company's performance in the first three quarters was not ideal, but future settlement is still expected due to a surge in pre-sale housing payments. Furthermore, due to the accelerated integration of the three major real estate platforms of the China Communications Group, the company's development can still receive more support in the future. We expect the EPS in 15-17 to be 0.31, 0.36, and 0.42 respectively. The current stock price corresponding to PE is 53X, 46X, and 40X, maintaining a buy-A rating, with a target price of 20.39 yuan for 6 months... Risk warning: Performance declined further, and group consolidation expectations fell short.

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