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金鸿能源(000669)季报点评:盈利符合预期 内生和外延均有潜力

中金公司 ·  Oct 29, 2015 00:00  · Researches

The results are in line with expectations. The company's net profit for the first three quarters fell 8% year on year to 220 million yuan, or 0.45 yuan per share, with net profit for the third quarter increasing 2% to 74 million yuan. The decline in profits in the first three quarters was mainly due to the LNG liquefaction plant of China Storage Energy, a major customer, which purchased natural gas directly from gas sources this year, while the company only provided piping and transportation services to them, and environmental protection companies' engineering revenue confirmation was lagging behind. We anticipate that environmental companies' fourth-quarter revenue recognition may return to normal and are expected to deliver on their performance promises. The development trend is that price reduction is conducive to stimulating demand in some downstream industries, and new projects drive growth. Assuming that gas prices for non-residents fall by 0.6 yuan/cubic meter in the second half of the year, we expect that demand for some price-sensitive industrial and transportation gas may improve, but full recovery is unlikely. The first phase of the Shahe Pipeline and Shuikoushan base project is expected to be put into operation next year, which is expected to contribute to an increase in gas volume; there is still potential for growth in traffic gas use. Currently, the number of gas stations in the company is 24, and the number under construction is about 14. Epitaxial expansion is expected to gain strength. The “Happy Horse Zone” era is over, gas sales growth in the natural gas industry is slowing down, and the integration of gas projects may be the general trend; we expect that the company will continue to step up mergers and acquisitions in the gas and environmental protection business in the future, and epitaxial expansion is worth looking forward to. Earnings forecasts maintain earnings per share forecasts of RMB 0.79, 1.03 and 1.37 RMB for 2015/16/17. The valuation and recommendations maintain the “recommended” rating, and the target price was raised 7% to RMB 25.7, corresponding to 25 times the 2015 price-earnings ratio. In the context of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei integration, efforts to convert coal to gas in Hebei are expected to accelerate; at the same time, the company has great potential for epitaxial expansion. Risk gas price reductions were lower than expected; natural gas consumption was sluggish; “coal-to-gas” efforts in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region were lower than expected; epitaxial expansion fell short of expectations, etc.

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