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荣科科技(300290):战略转型年 业绩基本符合预期

華泰證券 ·  Feb 1, 2016 00:00  · Researches

Investment highlights: Event: Rongke Technology predicts that net profit attributable to the parent company in 2015 will be 48,4048 million yuan to 65.488 million yuan, an increase of -15% to 15% over the previous year, and is expected to remain basically the same. Comment: In the year of strategic transformation, performance was basically in line with expectations. Since 2015 and 2016 are critical years for the company's transformation to smart healthcare, business adjustments are the company's focus, and the company will gradually increase the share of smart healthcare business while gradually divesting from the original business with lower profit margins. Therefore, we expect the company's overall performance to remain at a stable level in 2015-2016, but the share of smart medical-related businesses will gradually rise to more than 50%. Leading IT service providers in the Northeast region are unswervingly transforming into smart healthcare and medical big data service providers. Rongke Technology's traditional main business is data center construction, integration, operation and maintenance services. It is a leading IT service provider in the Northeast region. In the field of smart medicine, the company has established a multi-level customer resource system from health departments to medical service institutions. At the same time, the health file system and new agricultural cooperation system developed by the company have covered more than 6 million people. Beginning in 2014, the company has invested a fixed increase of 390 million yuan in medical big data projects and holds control of Shanghai Mijian, a leading manufacturer of clinical medical informatization. In the future, the company will strive to become a leader in the clinical application segment, a regional leader in the direction of data platforms, and an innovator in the field of healthcare big data. We are optimistic that the core logic of the company is: 1) The company may grow into an O2O leader in regional health management in the future. In the long run, the health management O2O platform built by Rongke has huge room for expansion, and Rongke has rich resource conditions to guarantee the promotion and implementation of this model (Rongke uses the impetus of national projects to demonstrate applications in several provincial regions in the future, and is expected to serve more than 10 million people); in the short term, Rongke has also found a mature business model (third-party telemedicine business) that can be learned from to be replicated and implemented in the Northeast region. It is expected that the revenue scale will expand in a relatively short period of time; 2) The company's current market value is only 4.4 billion, making it the smallest company in the smart medical sector; 3) Expectations for future extension are strong. Profit forecast and investment advice: Considering that this year and next two years will be the company's new business investment and business restructuring period, the company is given a relatively careful performance forecast for 2015 and 2016. When the business structure is adjusted in place, the performance in 2017 is expected to grow rapidly. The company's 2015-2017 EPS is expected to be 0.19 yuan, 0.20 yuan, and 0.29 yuan respectively. The compound growth rate of smart healthcare is expected to reach 96% in the next three years, maintaining the buying rating. Risk warning: 1. The promotion of clinical medical informatization products falls short of expectations; 2. The health management O2O platform is unable to explore an effective profit model; 3. The macroeconomy continues to decline, leading to a sharp decline in the company's traditional business performance.

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