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苏州设计(300500)新股上市定价:江苏民营建筑设计领跑者

華泰證券 ·  Jan 25, 2016 00:00  · Researches

Investment points: The company is a leading enterprise in the private building design industry in Jiangsu, with obvious regional brand advantages. The company was founded in 1988 and is mainly engaged in engineering technology services such as architectural design and engineering inspection. 2014 revenue/net profit is 338.56 million yuan. 90% of the company's recent revenue comes from Jiangsu Province. The company was one of the top ten private architectural design enterprises in China in 2011. Typical projects include the Suzhou Museum, Bank of China Tower, and Suzhou International Expo Center. The output value of the architectural design industry has been rising steadily, and private enterprises have risen to prominence. The compound revenue growth rate of the survey and design industry from 2007 to 2013 was 28.82%. Considering the new normal economic transformation background, the industry's growth rate is expected to stabilize at around 15% in the next three years. As the degree of marketization of the industry deepens, the competitive pattern will gradually shift from the current dominance of traditional state-owned construction design enterprises to a new pattern of joint development between state-owned and private enterprises. According to public information from the Securities Regulatory Commission, private enterprises account for the largest share of survey and design companies to be listed. In the future, more excellent private architectural design enterprises will emerge, and the first listed companies will have a first-mover advantage to integrate the industrial chain and develop a national architectural design company. The company's core competitiveness: (1) Talent advantage creates brand guarantee: The company has a well-structured, high-quality core technical team with a relatively high proportion of overseas professionals, obvious advantages in original architectural design, and key talents have won many awards. (2) Focus on scientific research and development to form core competitiveness: In 2011, the company became the first high-tech enterprise in the architectural design industry in Jiangsu Province, with a total of 58 national patents, including 6 national invention patents. (3) Complete qualifications and rich engineering experience: The company has many qualifications such as grade A in construction engineering and grade B in the engineering design and municipal industry, etc., and has accumulated experience in a large number of different types of architectural design projects. It has successively won the National Engineering Design Gold Award and more than 200 national or provincial ministerial awards, covering fields such as public building design and residential architecture design, laying a solid foundation for cross-regional expansion. Drivers of the company's future growth: (1) R&D is king, and new fields create new growth: The company has set up various teams and R&D centers such as Saide Green Building Engineering Technology and Rail Transit to expand the architectural design segment. (2) The construction of a national marketing network is conducive to increasing brand awareness and speeding up expansion outside the province: the company plans to build 4 architectural design branches in Huai'an, Nanjing, Hefei and Shenyang to gradually expand the share outside of the province and increase the scale growth rate. (3) Strengthen fine management and improve the company's profitability: The company's fund-raising projects will be invested in the construction of cloud management systems, gradually improving labor productivity, and greatly improving the efficiency of designers through the use of collaborative design systems and building information modeling (BIM) technology. Profit forecast and valuation: According to model estimation, we expect the company's net profit from 2015 to 2017 to be 0.63 /0.7 /84 billion yuan respectively, and the latest diluted EPS is 1.36/1.56/1.82 yuan, respectively. Referring to the valuation situation of similar companies and taking into account the company's future growth, we believe that we can give the company 30-35 times PE for 16 years, with a relatively reasonable value range of 46.8-54.6 yuan. Risk factors: risk of slowing growth in fixed asset investment, geographical risk of company revenue, market development risk, etc.

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