This report is read as follows:
The company announced its 2015 results of KuaiBao, an increase of 5.94% in revenue, and a drop of 15.52% in net profit attributed to the parent company, which was lower than expected. The company will make a transition to the medical service industry and maintain its overweight rating.
Main points of investment:
The pharmaceutical business is under pressure, and the distribution of medical services will be increased. Considering that Simotang mouth liquid and Tianma Xingnao capsule are in the stage of expanding hospital channels, the short-term marketing expenses are under great pressure, and the performance contribution is delayed, so the company's performance EPS in 2015-17 is reduced to 0.34 (- 0.07) / 0.38 (- 0.12) / 0.43 (- 0.19). The company's OTC channel growth has gradually recovered, 1 billion will increase the fund-raising layout of maternal and child hospital projects, the transformation of the medical service industry to find a new direction of growth. Consider the landing of the company's transformation service industry project, give a certain industry premium, 63x in 2016, the target price is 24 yuan.
The pharmaceutical business is under pressure. Q4 company revenue increased by 4% in a single quarter, compared with the first three quarters, revenue growth slowed, and health insurance control fees still put great pressure on prescription sales. The decline in net profit for the whole year is mainly as follows: 1) the solid preparation workshop began to change solid after passing the GMP certification, and depreciation increased; 2) Simotang oral liquid and Tianma Xingnao capsule expanded in the hospital channels, resulting in a rapid increase in costs; 3) after all the fund-raising funds were used, the interest expenses increased. Traditional drugstore channels are expected to continue to grow in 2016, but prescription drug varieties are expected to be under pressure to control fees and to invest in marketing costs.
Take the maternal and child hospital as the starting point to cut into the medical service industry. The company announced that it will raise an additional 1.08 billion yuan to invest in the construction and supplementary liquidity projects of Ningxiang Women and Children Hospital and Yiyang Women and Children Hospital, and explore the layout of the medical service industry. Major shareholders promised not less than 50 million to participate in the fixed increase, and the latest announcement determined that the reserve price for the fixed increase was 15.63 yuan. The company's layout of maternal and child service projects and the company's Simotang products have a certain synergistic effect, using the PPP model to actively participate in the reform of public hospitals, cooperative hospitals are expected to continue to expand in the future.
Risk tips: depreciation continues to increase; the expansion cycle of medical services is longer; the risk of medical insurance cost control.
