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黑芝麻(000716)年报点评:传统糊类产品放量 期待新产品突破

華泰證券 ·  Apr 5, 2016 00:00  · Researches

Investment highlights: The company announced its 2015 annual report: In 2015, the company achieved operating income of 1,887 billion yuan and net profit attributable to the parent company of 149 million yuan, up 26% and 140% year-on-year respectively, and the performance was in line with expectations. The company's performance growth rate in the fourth quarter clearly rebounded, with a year-on-year increase of 50%. The company launched a “general sales attack” in the fourth quarter of 2015 to provide the market with richer product categories to meet consumer demand through the development of new products; it increased the promotion of products through various famous brand categories on Zhejiang, Beijing, and Jiangsu TV, etc., and achieved rapid growth in operating income and profit. Looking at the division of business, the black sesame paste series is currently still the company's main product, and it is also the company's main source of profit at present, with an estimated operating income of around 1 billion yuan. Liquid products companies have been operating steadily. The company launched the “dark black milk” ready-to-eat dairy-containing vegetable protein drink packaged by Tetra Pak in the fourth quarter, which has enriched the beverage range, but contributed little to performance. It is estimated that the overall operating income of liquid products is around 300 million yuan. Benefiting from financial interest income, profitability increased: In 2015, the company's consolidated gross margin was 32.6%, up 1 percentage point from the previous year, mainly due to the effect of scale after increasing sales scale. The company's sales expense ratio was 20.7%, with little change over the previous year. The company continued to invest in market expenses to create new products, and sales consumption remained at a high level. The company's management expenses rate was 5.8%, a slight increase over the previous year; the financial expenses rate was -0.67%, a sharp increase over the previous year. The main reason is that the company received additional interest income of 30 million yuan throughout the year due to the increase in cash interest income after a fixed increase in capital raised. Due to the low base of the company's net interest rate, the adjustment of financial expenses had a great impact, and the company's net profit margin increased by 3.8 percentage points to 7.9%. Stable cash flow indicators: The company achieved cash flow inflows from operating activities of 160 million yuan, a sharp increase over the previous year, matching the absolute value of net profit. The company's advance accounts rose sharply, with a value of 158 million yuan at the end of the period; however, the company's inventory also increased significantly, with a value of 280 million yuan at the end of the period. The increase in advance payments shows that dealers are more motivated to disburse funds. The increase in inventory is mainly due to inventory consolidation in Rongzhou Logistics Industrial Park. The company's equity incentives require an average annual revenue growth rate of not less than 30% in 2016-2017, and no less than 200 million yuan and 250 million yuan in non-net profit. Currently, the company has terminated its acquisition plan for Jinil edible oil, and it is expected that other acquisition projects may be initiated to meet the incentive requirements. The growth rate of paste products is expected to slow down in 2016, and the new product, black milk, is closer to liquid beverages, and is expected to perform well. According to estimates, the company's 2016-2018 EPS is estimated to be 0.63 yuan, 0.78 yuan, and 0.92 yuan, respectively. A valuation of 28 to 30 times is given, and the target price is 17 to 18 yuan. The target price corresponds to an upward space of less than 20%, downgraded to the “increase in holdings” rating. Risk Warning: Food Safety Issues, Macroeconomic Weakness

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