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京投银泰(600683)年报及一季报点评:更名京投发展 集团A股唯一资本运作平台值得期待

中投證券 ·  Apr 29, 2016 00:00  · Researches

  Key investment points: Performance releases significant increases in net revenue and profit. In 2015, revenue of 8.43 billion yuan increased 142% year on year, net profit of 115 million yuan surged 359% year on year, net profit of 115 million yuan, minus non-net profit of 44 million yuan (2014: -340 million yuan). The diluted EPS of 0.16 yuan was basically in line with expectations (previous forecast: 0.16 yuan). In the main business, real estate sales carry-over revenue was 8.12 billion yuan +159%, and the overall gross profit margin was reduced by 26.5% by 1pc. The Kun Imperial Palace, Park Yuefu, and New Mileage projects settled 4 billion yuan, 2.4 billion yuan, and 1.5 billion yuan respectively. The gross margin of each project is 17%-39%. The gross margin of each project is not high due to cost sharing factors, but there is plenty of room for improvement in future projects such as Kun Yufu. The reasons for the company's operating profit of 980 million yuan, net profit of 620 million yuan, and net profit of only 120 million yuan: 1) The settlement project in Beijing is mainly cooperative development and the equity interest without major shareholder cooperation is only 51%, and minority shareholders' loss is as high as 500 million yuan; 2) 100% of the estimated price loss was borne by the listed company. The impairment of the Ordos project was 54 million yuan, and its unconfirmed interest income of 121 million yuan reduced profit by a total of 175 million yuan to prepare for the price reduction of the Wuxi Hongshu project. In 2016, the company expects to achieve operating income of 7.61 billion yuan, 16Q1 has achieved 1.0 billion yuan + 1718%, and net profit of 36 million yuan (15 years: -66 million yuan). As of the end of March, the advance payment of 5.7 billion yuan was basically locked in 16 results. According to the 15-year plan, the actual excess of 7.2 billion yuan was exceeded by 16%. It is expected that the excess will still be completed in 2016. The development strategy with Beijing as the center and rail transit as the center is clearly positioned, and it will maintain a high level of performance in the short term. In 13-15, sales were 2.4 billion yuan, 7.1 billion yuan, and 9.8 billion yuan respectively, with a compound growth rate of 114% over the three years; in 2016, the company plans to sell 6.2 billion yuan, and has already signed contracts of 1.66 billion yuan +75% over the same period in the first three months. In 2016, the company plans to start 255,000 square meters of new construction and complete 375,000 square meters. The latter is 74% of the actual construction volume completed in 2015. The current project has more than 2 million square meters of unsold construction (including guaranteed housing, excluding Ordos), and the Beijing project is about 1.78 million square meters, with a total value of about 40 billion yuan. Continued sales and settlement are expected to maintain a steady growth in the company's performance. However, relying on the majority shareholder, Beijing Infrastructure Investment Co., Ltd. and the technical barriers of building houses on the subway car section, there is plenty of room for future projects in the extension of the Beijing Metro. The name was changed to “Beijing Investment Development,” and the Group's only capital management platform for A shares is worth looking forward to. Following the removal of Yintai Chemical (the remaining shares of Yintai Group are only 4.05%; the rest is transferred to Mr. Cheng Shaoliang, who currently holds 20.78% of the shares and dissolves the co-actor relationship), the major Tokyo Investment Group held 31% of the shares after increasing its holdings, and plans to change its name to “Beijing Investment Development”. The Beijing Investment Group currently undertakes the functions of investment and financing, pre-planning, asset management, capital operation, and related resource development and management for infrastructure projects such as rail transit in Beijing. It is not ruled out that it will continue to be involved in subway construction and operation in the future. As of the end of 2014, total assets were $38.6 billion and net assets were $125.5 billion. Since its establishment in 2003, relying on investment and financing for rail transit and other infrastructure projects, a “integrated, two-wing” strategic development pattern has been gradually constructed: with rail transit and other government construction projects as the main body, resource development and equity investment as the “two wings”, expanding the equity investment layout related to the rail transit industry and speeding up the construction of an equity investment pattern for the entire rail transit industry chain. The company also integrates various rail transit management resources through business restructuring to form an asset management model for integrated resource development. Currently, the “two wings” include: 1) resource development. On the one hand, land resource development, including first-level land development and superimposed properties, site integration, etc.; on the other hand, asset management and development, including neighboring transit businesses, civil communication projects, self-owned property management, etc.; 2) equity investment, successful investment in rail transport-related industrial projects and similar financial industries, with a total total equity investment of 2,947 billion yuan (with Beijing Investment Company as the capital subject), 23 participating holding companies, including 6 wholly-owned and holding companies (including 1 overseas listed company), 17 Participating companies (including 5 domestic listed companies and 4 overseas listed companies). Investment projects include Cornerstone Leasing, Municipal Road and Bridge, Beijing Investment Hong Kong, CITIC, and Seven Star Electronics. As the Group's only platform for listing A-shares, it is expected that it will continue to increase its support for listed companies to better develop the “one, two wings” strategy. Funding and debt are expected to continue to improve. The overall average financing cost for 2015 was 9.35% (2014:9.62%). Major shareholders' loans were one of the main sources, and project financing costs were too high. Costs are expected to continue to decline as central banks cut interest rates, release corporate performance to reduce financing risk premiums, and make better use of open market financing. Corporate bonds of 779 million yuan have been issued, with a 3-year interest rate of 4.8%. A further 2 billion private equity bonds are planned to be issued in 2016, and 1 billion yuan has been issued with a 3-year interest rate of 5.24%. The balance ratio at the end of 2015 was 70%, the balance ratio was 69% at the end of March 2016, and the net debt ratio fell to 501% from 627% in '14, and is expected to continue to improve. The company has a market capitalization of only about 7 billion dollars and is of excellent quality. It changed its name to “Beijing Investment Development” or became a capital operation platform for A-shares of the major Tokyo Investment Group. Its importance and development space are worth looking forward to. The investment value and long-term development have been recognized by insurance capital. There is still a possibility that it will continue to attract stable strategic investors under favorable circumstances, and it is worth paying attention to. Predict that the company's 16-18eps will be 0.35, 0.48, 0.61 yuan, and RNAV12 yuan/share, giving RNAV a price target price of 12 yuan to maintain the “highly recommended” rating. Risk warning: Major shareholders' support for listed companies falls short of expectations; high debt and high financing costs.

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