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浙江东方(600120)季报点评:传统主业收缩 静待AMC注入

國信證券 ·  May 4, 2016 00:00  · Researches

  The quarterly results exceeded expectations. In the first quarter of 2016, the company achieved operating income of 1.37 billion yuan and realized net profit of 140 million yuan, up 0.95% and 48.9%, respectively. Considering that the current injection of assets from AMC Zhejiang merchants in Zhejiang Province has not yet been completed, the company was able to record such excellent results in the first quarter, exceeding our expectations. Investment income boosted performance and the company's first-quarter results achieved a 48.9% year-on-year increase, mainly due to a 32.2% year-on-year increase in investment income. However, investment income is mainly due to an increase in income from the sale of sellable financial assets. The company's balance of saleable financial assets at the beginning of the period (3.27 billion yuan) was all equity assets. Considering market trends in the first quarter, we speculate that it is more likely due to the disposal of equity investments recorded at cost (mainly VC funds such as Paradise Silicon Valley). The contraction of the traditional main business, or the company's current quarterly report, attracted great attention. One is that the company achieved net operating cash flow of 240 million yuan, an increase of 49.1% year on year. Second, the company's cash expenses for purchasing goods and receiving labor (the main operating cash expenses) fell 25.8% year on year. We believe that the comprehensive analysis of these two indicators directly indicates that the company's traditional main trade and logistics business is showing signs of active contraction, improving cash flow, or saving energy for further financial transformation. Building a financial ecosystem with AMC as the core means that the financial holding platform company announced a fixed increase in the assets of local AMC Zhejiang merchants in Zhejiang Province, and will also build a financial ecosystem with AMC as the core covering various businesses such as leasing, insurance, industrial investment funds, trusts, real estate, etc., and build a regional financial control platform to inject core competitiveness into the company's financial sector. We expect the financial sector to contribute 870, 10.0, and 1.15 billion to the company's net profit in 2016-2018. Wait for AMC to inject and maintain the “buy” rating. According to the segmental valuation method, we believe that the company's overall reasonable valuation is 350-41 billion yuan, corresponding to 27-32 yuan/share after capital expansion (1,286 billion shares). Compared with the closing price of 19.86 yuan/share before suspension of trading, there is 36%-60% room. Currently, we still have to wait for the fixed increase to finally land and maintain the “buy” rating. Risk warning 1) The global economy is sluggish, and the rise in the company's traditional business performance is weak; 2) macroeconomic growth has slowed sharply, leading to a decline in the return on the non-performing asset management business; 3) the progress of asset restructuring is lower than expected.

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