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天业股份(600807)点评:成立三大事业部 设立地产并购基金

安信證券 ·  May 23, 2016 00:00  · Researches

  Incident: The company announced that 1) it plans to establish a real estate merger and acquisition fund in cooperation with Cinda Capital and Cinda Asset; use B-grade LP to invest 600 million yuan to subscribe for shares of the Trust Investment Fund. 2) The company establishes a real estate division, a financial division, and a mining division as profit centers under the company's control. Participate in the establishment of real estate funds to help develop the real estate business: 1) Strong partners: Cinda assets cooperated with the company to invest in M&A funds are one of the four largest AMCs in China, with 15-year operating income of 78.744 billion yuan and net profit of 14.704 billion yuan. As of the end of 2015, Cinda's total assets amounted to RMB 713.975 billion. 2) Using leverage to accelerate real estate business development: The company uses participating in mergers and acquisitions funds to explore asset-light operating models, make full use of leverage advantages, improve capital use efficiency, and accelerate real estate project expansion. Optimizing the organizational structure, the three major businesses go hand in hand: 1) Set up three major divisions: the company establishes a real estate division, a financial division, and a mining division as profit centers, giving full management authority and enhancing enthusiasm for business development. 2) Real estate differentiation regions: The company's real estate business has established six new areas in Shenzhen, Beijing, Jinan, Qingyan, Jilin and Dongying to optimize regional division of labor and improve project development efficiency. At the same time, the establishment of the Shenzhen and Beijing areas further confirmed the company's determination to enter first-tier cities. Diversify investment and financing channels to enhance the company's overall profitability: 1) Venture capital participated in the privatization of Qihoo 360: In addition to setting up a real estate merger and acquisition fund, the company is also actively expanding venture capital business to enhance the company's business capabilities through multiple channels. In April '16, the company announced that it would participate in the privatization of Qihoo 360 through Tianying Huixin, with an investment amount of approximately US$89.71 million. 2) Return on excess investment: 360 expects its 16-18 revenue to reach US$36.3, 48.2, and 6.255 billion, respectively, and net profit of US$4.9, 7.6, and 1.1 billion, respectively. 3) 360's return is heating up again: Currently, there are media reports that 360's privatization exchange application has been approved by the Foreign Affairs Administration. We believe that as a high-quality enterprise and involving cybersecurity, the government should focus on supporting high-tech enterprises. The company's return to A-shares is a probable event. Investment advice: The company's real estate business layout in Jinan is on the front line, exploring diversified financing channels, and M&A funds to speed up project development. The establishment of the three major divisions further promotes the company's strategic layout for diversified real estate, mining, and finance development. At the same time, the privatization of 360 in the venture capital business is being actively promoted. If the return to A-shares goes smoothly, it will bring the company excessive investment benefits. The management has good expectations for future development. Currently, the company's stock price is in a state of excessive decline in the short term, and there is huge room for future appreciation. We expect the company's EPS for 2016-2018 to be 0.20, 0.27, and 0.34, corresponding to the current stock price PE valuation of 56.2X, 42.3X, and 33.4X, maintaining a “buy-A” rating, and a target price of 19.8 yuan for 6 months. Risk warning: unsuccessful issuance, real estate business continuity issues

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