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世纪瑞尔(300150):行业拓展保障成长 布局铁路出行后服务值得期待

長江證券 ·  Jul 27, 2016 00:00  · Researches

  Key events in the report describe our recent research and analysis of the company's investment logic. Incident review Traditional business remains steady, and industry expansion ensures growth. The company is a professional provider of industrial monitoring products and solutions. Judging from its 2015 revenue, its main business is to provide various monitoring systems surrounding railways, and is a leading system supplier in the field of railway traffic safety monitoring in China. Its business is strongly related to investment in the railway industry and is post-cyclical. According to China Railway Corporation data, the national railway completed fixed asset investment of 823.8 billion yuan in 2015, a slight increase over 808.8 billion yuan in 2014, and put into operation 9531 kilometers of new lines. According to its work plan, the railway completed fixed asset investment of more than 800 billion yuan in 2016. Overall, railway fixed investment has been relatively stable in recent years. It is expected to be maintained until 2020, and the company's traditional business is expected to maintain steady growth. At the same time, the company's monitoring business has good industry expansion and replicability. Currently, the company has gradually entered the fields of electricity, water conservancy and communication monitoring, opening up new growth points. Among them, the communications sector has already received considerable orders. It is expected to achieve revenue of 150 to 200 million yuan in 2016, making a positive contribution to the company's growth. The acquisition of eWeixun will continue to advance, and the station equipment operation and management service market can be expected. Yi Weixun originally operated the railway customer service system operation and maintenance business and spare parts sales by Yicheng Software Maintenance Division. Currently, Yi Weixun has provided passenger service system operation and maintenance services and related spare parts sales for about 400 stations across the country (high-speed rail station market share about 80%). In 2014, the company purchased 30% of its shares, and plans to buy 66.5% of its shares this time. The company has announced that it will continue to advance acquisition transactions. After early accumulation, it is only necessary to supplement, revise and improve the application materials. It is expected that the entire process will be relatively fast, and the end of the third quarter is expected to be relatively fast. degree It is initially expected to be completed. eWeixun promised to achieve net profit of 50 million yuan in 2016, which is expected to make a positive contribution to the company's performance. With the gradual improvement of China's railway construction, its stock of equipment has reached an impressive volume, and the station operation and maintenance market can be expected. After laying out the railway service market, long-term space can be expected. 1) The company cooperated with banks and others to launch the establishment of Everbright Finance Consumer Finance Co., Ltd., with a registered capital of 1 billion yuan, which is at the forefront of the industry among banking consumer finance companies. The company invested 200 million yuan accounting for 20%, laying the foundation for supporting financial services for the company's railway travel services. 2) An investment of 20 million yuan was invested in Suzhou Boyuan Rongtian, accounting for 15% of the shares. Boyuan Rongtian mainly provides passenger service management platforms for the C-side and a comprehensive station management system for the B-side. It has real-time data on high-speed rail stations, and the company has scarce high-speed rail data resources, which is a key part of building a post-railway service information platform. 3) The company is basically rich in industrial resources in the railway system, and the capital is still sufficient after successfully completing the eWeixun acquisition. It is worth looking forward to the subsequent acceleration of the expansion layout in the industrial chain. Profit forecast and investment rating: The company's 2016-2018 EPS is expected to be 0.28, 0.34, and 0.42 yuan, respectively. Considering that the company's current stock price is inverted compared to the average purchase price of 15.36 yuan in the first phase of its employee shareholding plan, from a management perspective, the traditional main business is steady, industry expansion has built a new growth point, and the acquisition of eWeixun's industrial collaboration and performance has increased significantly. The layout is broad in terms of railway travel services and financial services market space. It is optimistic about the company's investment value. Coverage for the first time has been given a “gain” rating. Risk warning: Industry expansion falls short of expectations; railway investment declines rapidly; innovative business ecosystem construction falls short of expectations.

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