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南方轴承(002553)深度研究:进军飞机轮胎再制造市场 公司成长空间广阔

國金證券 ·  Aug 3, 2016 00:00  · Researches

  Investment Logic Company enters the aircraft tire remanufacturing industry through the acquisition of 36% of Wuxi Pteron's shares, and is expected to form a “auto parts+aviation aftermarket” dual business operation model. Wuxi Pterosaurs is the fifth largest aircraft tire remanufacturer in the world and the only domestic aircraft tire remanufacturer with continuous airworthiness. It has all kinds of qualifications, has obtained the qualification certification of major domestic airlines, and has already obtained some orders, breaking the monopoly pattern of foreign tire giants, with outstanding future growth. China Southern Bearing invested 58.77 million yuan to acquire 36% of Wuxi Pteron's shares and plans to make it the company's second main business. It is expected that the company will continue to increase its capital and expand its shareholding ratio in the next few years. At the same time, it will also consider seeking other suitable targets in this field to leverage industrial synergy to help the company expand the scale of the aviation industry. The aviation tire remanufacturing industry has high barriers and good profitability, and the future growth of Wuxi Pterons is outstanding. The remanufacturing of aviation tires requires very high requirements in terms of process, equipment, raw materials, etc., and the technology monopoly is obvious. At the same time, strict qualification certification is required. The technology is very difficult. Currently, only a few tire giants in the world, such as Michelin, have corresponding capabilities. High barriers have created a high margin and monopoly pattern in the industry. We expect the domestic market to reach several billion yuan, and powerful manufacturers are expected to replace imports. After more than 10 years of continuous investment, orders and sales volume are imminent. After joining hands with Southern Bearing, Wuxi Pteroson has begun to expand production capacity. It is expected that the performance in the next few years will be explosive. The traditional bearing business will maintain steady growth. The company's bearing products are widely used in automotive, industrial and other fields. Its needle roller bearings are leaders in the industry, with a global market share of about 30%. Benefiting from the steady growth of the automotive industry, we believe the company's traditional bearing business will continue to rise steadily. The unidirectional pulley assembly (OAP) business still has a lot of room for growth. The company's OAP products have successfully entered the procurement system of some international auto parts manufacturers. It is expected that they will pass Valeo's technical certification in the future, and the business growth will be good. Investment proposal profit forecast: Considering the exam preparation results of the acquired Wuxi Pteroson and the other two participating companies, we expect the company to achieve sales revenue of 3.21/3.42/366 million yuan from 2016 to 2018, net profit attributable to shareholders of the parent company of 0.79/0.93/107 million yuan, and EPS of 0.23/0.27/0.31 yuan respectively. The current stock price (13.58 yuan) corresponds to 60/51/44 times PE from 2016 to 2018, respectively. We believe that the company's main business is growing steadily, and that the aircraft tire remanufacturing business is scarce and has great performance flexibility. We covered it for the first time and gave the company an “increase in holdings” rating. The risk is mainly the risk of price fluctuations of raw materials; the progress of cooperation has not met expectations.

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