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铁建装备(1786.HK)中报点评:中期业绩略有下滑 下半年营收和新订单将显著增长

光大證券 ·  Aug 1, 2016 00:00  · Researches

The performance for the first half of the year declined slightly year on year, and profit margin increased. The company achieved revenue of 1.66 billion yuan in the first half of the year, down 7.5% year on year; realized net profit of 210 million yuan, down 4.9% year on year. Earnings per share were $0.14. Benefiting from improved gross profit structure and cost reduction and efficiency, gross margin increased 1.7 percentage points to 25.1% year on year, and net profit increased 0.7 percentage points to 15.4% year on year. Some orders for the first half of the year were delayed in confirming revenue, and the company's revenue target for the first half of the year was not affected. The company's revenue for the first half of the year declined slightly year-on-year, mainly due to delays in confirming revenue for some orders in the large machinery sector, involving contracts involving 300 million dollars of new products, including four snowplows, two sewage suction trucks, one mill and sand removal truck, etc. If there are no delays in product delivery, we expect the company's revenue in the first half of the year to be around 2 billion yuan, an increase of about 12% over the previous year. Delivery of this batch of products will be achieved in the second half of the year, and the annual revenue target will not be affected. The company's orders for the second half of the year will be significantly higher than the first half of the year, and large-scale railway road maintenance machinery tenders will generally be held in the second half of the year, so that products can be delivered in batches in the second year. The company added 1 billion dollars in orders in the first half of the year, and 1.5 billion orders in hand. In the second half of the year, in anticipation of the “12th Five-Year Plan” supplementary bidding of 1 billion dollars and other scattered orders, the company's annual new order target is around 35-3.8 billion, that is, the target for new orders for the second half of the year is 2.5-2.8 billion, which is far higher than the scale of the first half of the year. Furthermore, the target does not include the first annual large-scale road maintenance machinery tender for the “13th Five-Year Plan”, which is expected to be launched by the end of this year. If we consider the 2016 tender at the end of this year and the beginning of next year, the company can actually add more than 5 billion new orders. The upper limit of transactions related to railway construction has been drastically raised, and overseas exports are expected to achieve new breakthroughs. Driven by full order expectations, the company proposed to raise the annual linked transaction limit with China Railway Construction from 100 million to 1 billion. The composition includes 240 million domestic contracts, as well as an estimated potential contract of nearly 600 million overseas contracts. Investments in railways and urban rail transit maintained steady growth during the “13th Five-Year Plan” period. The entire investment cycle of railways covered infrastructure, equipment purchases, maintenance and replacement, etc. Guided by the spirit of long-term and short-term planning documents such as the “Medium- to Long-Term Railway Network Plan (2030)”, the “13th Five-Year Plan for the Development Plan of Railways”, and the “Three-Year Action Plan for the Construction of Major Transportation Infrastructure Projects”, etc., while maintaining steady growth, the investment structure of investment in the railway and urban rail transit industry is changing, and the post-cycle maintenance industry is in a period of rapid growth. Maintaining a “buy” rating, the company's revenue in the first half of the year was close to 1.7 billion dollars, and on-hand orders were 1.5 billion. Most of them will be delivered in the second half of the year. Considering that in the second half of the year, there will always be about 1 billion “12th Five-Year Plan” supplementary procurement tenders, the company has already carried out pre-commissioning, so product delivery and revenue can be realized immediately after winning the bid. Coupled with other scattered revenue, we expect the company's annual revenue to be around 4.5 billion dollars, an increase of about 12% year over year. We expect the company's net profit for 2016-17 to be RMB 526/629 million, and EPS to be RMB 0.35/0.41 respectively. The company was given a target price of HK$5.4, corresponding to 13 times PE in 2016, with a “buy” rating. Risk warning: industry investment falls short of expectations, poor overseas expansion, changes in partner relationships

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