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黑芝麻(000716)季报点评:三季度业绩向好 富硒食品长期看好

東北證券 ·  Oct 21, 2016 00:00  · Researches

  Report Summary: Incident: From January to September 2015, the company achieved operating income of 1,176 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 13.96%; achieved net profit of 604.695 million yuan belonging to the parent company's owners, a year-on-year decrease of 14.34%; EPS was 0.095 yuan, with a weighted average return on net assets of 3.42%. Revenue growth accelerated in the third quarter, and profit gradually recovered: on a quarterly basis, Q1, Q2, and Q3 achieved operating income of 438 million yuan, 294 million yuan, and 444 million yuan respectively, up -2.00%, 10.82%, and 38.84% year-on-year; Q1, Q2, and Q3 achieved net profit of 239.527 million yuan, -304,000 yuan, and 408.703 million yuan respectively, up -26.32%, -100.04%, and 34.83% year-on-year. The company increased advertising investment, terminal promotion, and new development of new products in the first half of the year. Support from dealers led to a sharp rise in sales expenses. In the third quarter, the company reasonably controlled sales expenses. Sales expenses were 52.785 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 3.91% and a year-on-month decrease of 39.09%. The gross profit margin for the third quarter was 31.14%, down 1.14% year on year. The main reason is that the production base in Nanchang, Jiangxi was put into operation, and the current capacity utilization rate is not high. The revenue share of new products is expected to rise to 50% in the next 3-5 years: in terms of products, old products seek breakthroughs and launch new products such as matcha, fruits and vegetables, and oat sesame paste for young consumers. The market performance of the new products black sesame milk and dark brown milk was good after the launch. The company will continue to launch new products, and the target revenue share for new products in the future will increase to 50% within 3-5 years. The Chuzhou production base of black sesame milk invested by the company will be completed in September 2017. Black sesame milk is a vegetable protein drink that the company has focused on in recent years, effectively complementing the shortcomings of traditional black sesame paste in terms of ease of consumption. After the base is fully put into operation, it is expected to produce 150,000 tons of black sesame milk every year, adding 1.1 billion yuan in revenue and 110 million yuan in net profit. Jinghe Rice Selenium-rich Foods is expected to maintain 20-30% growth: Relying on the excellent management capabilities of listed companies, the company provides favorable support to Jinghe Rice in working capital financing, operation management, marketing, etc., and is expected to achieve revenue of about 400 million yuan for the whole year. With the company's further integration of marketing, it is expected to maintain 20-30% growth over the next three years. Profit forecast and investment rating: EPS is expected to be 0.29 yuan, 0.36 yuan, and 0.42 yuan respectively in 2016 to 2018, corresponding PE is 26 times, 22 times, and 19 times, respectively, maintaining the company's “gain” rating. Risk warning: food safety risks, increased industry competition

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