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宁波建工(601789)更新报告:大踏步转型IDC 量子通信存想象空间

國泰君安 ·  Oct 27, 2016 00:00  · Researches

  Key investment points: increase holdings. The company's revenue/net profit for the first three quarters was 86/130 million yuan, down 3%/8.5% year on year, respectively, slightly lower than expected. Considering the company's January-September order of 10.8 billion yuan, a sharp increase of 49% over the previous year, and initial results in developing PPP business, the company maintained its 2016/17 EPS forecast of 0.21/0.25 yuan. Consider that the company plans to acquire 78% of Zhongjingyun's shares, take a big step to transform the IDC business, give the company a valuation premium, and raise the company's target price to 8.6 yuan. The corresponding PE valuation for 2016/17 is 41/34 times, increasing holdings. Taking great strides to transform the IDC business, there is room for imagination in quantum communication. 1) The company plans to increase the shares by 4.54 yuan/share to acquire about 78% of Zhongjing Cloud's shares by 1,263 million yuan. If the company completes the company's holdings of about 91% of the shares in Zhongjing Cloud; and the company plans to raise 780 million yuan of supporting capital for controlling shareholders and employees with a fixed increase of 780 million yuan per share to continue to increase the IDC business; 2) China Economic Cloud's location and scale advantages are expected to be put into use soon, and the company expects to have signed 72 customers. Zhong Jing Yun Net profit attributable to 2017-2019 was 0.83/2.28/233 million yuan, respectively; 3) The IDC market is growing rapidly, and the 2009-14 CAGR is 38.6%, which does not rule out the possibility of China Economic Cloud's continued expansion; 4) After the fixed increase is completed, Kehua Hengsheng will hold 2.3% of the company's shares. Kehua Hengsheng joined Guigun Quantum in April to jointly develop the quantum communication market. China Economic Cloud itself and Anhui quantum communication equipment strategic cooperation agreement, leading the quantum communication related business layout. IDC/Construction/Finance is driven by multiple wheels, and development prospects are opening up. 1) The PPP explosion continues, and the implementation of the company's PPP orders shows an accelerated trend. It won the PPP project for about 3.68 billion yuan in the second half of the year; 2) The acquisition of South Africa's Anlan Securities will use this as an entry point for overseas expansion and actively explore various financial service models. There are expectations of mergers and acquisitions of high-quality overseas assets in the future, and future performance will be driven by multiple rounds of PPP/IDC/finance. Risk warning: the fixed increase plan was not approved, China Economic Cloud's profit fell short of expectations, etc.

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