share_log

德联集团(002666)季报点评:业绩增长稳定 战略调整符合现阶段发展

長城證券 ·  Oct 28, 2016 00:00  · Researches

  In recent years, many e-commerce platforms in the automotive aftermarket have been competing to derive many business models. Under the praise of capital, there has even been irrational behavior in the subsidy model. Capital investment has also experienced a process from peak to trough, along with serious losses and bankruptcy of some operators. During the period of irrational market expansion, the company changed its business strategy, chose to focus on “quantity” to “quality”, actively slowed down the post-market layout with “2S stores” as the core, and implemented a strategic shift of “taking MB2B2C online sales as the lead and increasing development cooperation to serve 2S stores”. Referring to the mature automobile chain business model and automobile service supermarket model in foreign countries, we continue to be optimistic about the layout of the company's offline chain brand model with “2S stores” as the core. The company's 2016-2018 EPS is estimated to be 0.30, 0.35, and 0.41 yuan respectively. The current stock price corresponding to PE is 29 times, 25 times, and 21 times, maintaining the “recommended” rating. The company released its three-quarter report: The first three quarters of 2016 achieved operating income of 1.54 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 15.46%, net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies of 113 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 6.07%, and EPS of 0.15 yuan. Among them, the third quarter achieved revenue of 578 million yuan, an increase of 22.89% over the previous year, and net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies was 46 million yuan, an increase of 36.99% over the previous year. The performance was in line with expectations. At the same time, the company announced that net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies for the full year of 2016 is 143-214 million yuan, with a change of -20% — 20%. The performance in a single quarter improved, and there was steady growth throughout the year. In the first half of the year, the company's aftermarket business caused a slight decline in performance due to a large increase in labor costs and a large increase in fixed asset depreciation and amortization expenses arising from the completion and commissioning of the first fund-raising project. Entering the second half of the year, the company took the initiative to slow the pace of post-market expansion. The process from pursuing “quantity” to “quality” reduced the company's expansion costs, and the third quarter performance improved. Performance increased steadily throughout the year. From “weight” to “heavy quality”, it is in line with the current stage of development of the company. The number of 2S stores is not the ultimate goal pursued by the company. The company's current goal is to ensure the effectiveness of each existing store as much as possible and contribute effectively to the company's revenue. Therefore, the reason for the current slow growth of 2S stores is related to the company's focus on screening and integration and summing up operating experience. On the basis of ensuring effectiveness, it also pursues a wide range of stores. The current shift in the “2S store layout with a small number of flagship stores plus a large number of cooperative service stores” strategy is in line with the company's current development situation and is conducive to the company's continuous expansion and construction of offline 2S stores on the basis of guaranteed performance. Take MB2B2C online sales as the lead and increase the development of cooperative service 2S stores: In view of the impact of many e-commerce platforms in the automotive aftermarket in recent years, especially the customer diversion phenomenon caused by irrational subsidy behavior, the company plans to take MB2B2C online sales as a lead, develop cooperative service stores, and build (or acquire) self-operated stores to promote the implementation of fund-raising projects. The company's MB2B2C model network system construction is the foundation for future management and operation of the 2S store chain system. Using this system as the first step in implementing fund-raising projects, rapidly expanding the number of users and business volume of the network can not only promote revenue from the fund-raising project, but also lay a good foundation for the layout of the 2S store system. The company plans to increase the number of cooperative service stores built. According to the layout of a small number of regional flagship stores plus a larger number of cooperative service stores, it is conducive to improving the efficiency of the company's use of capital raised and reducing the impact on e-commerce platforms in the aftermarket in the short term. Continue to be optimistic about the layout of the company's chain brand model with the “2S store” as the core: the automotive aftermarket 2S store is a service model that specializes in providing automotive after-sales repair, maintenance, security inspection, decoration, and parts replacement, including spare parts (spare parts) and after-sales service (Service). 2S stores can operate after-sales services for various automobile brands, and their business scope is broader and more flexible than 4S stores. Up to now, the company has 2 direct 2S stores, 128 regional service providers (big B end), and more than 7,000 small B end. In 2018, the number of regional dealers and terminal service stores of various types is expected to reach more than 20,000, striving to cover more than 10 million terminal car owners. After a round of reshuffling of automobile e-commerce platforms, there are countless startups that have gone out of business. Internet e-commerce's penetration into the auto parts aftermarket is still low. The consumer portal that dominates the aftermarket of auto parts is still: 4S stores, repair shops, and other offline physical stores that can provide overall solutions. Referring to the two mature automobile aftermarket models of foreign automobile chain business models and car service supermarket models, we continue to be optimistic about the layout of the company's chain brand model with “2S stores” as the core. Risk warning: Competition in the industry is intensifying; the automotive aftermarket layout is progressing less than expected.

The translation is provided by third-party software.


The above content is for informational or educational purposes only and does not constitute any investment advice related to Futu. Although we strive to ensure the truthfulness, accuracy, and originality of all such content, we cannot guarantee it.
    Write a comment