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中房地产(000736)三季报点评:业绩突破、关注资源整合预期

安信證券 ·  Oct 31, 2016 00:00  · Researches

  Event: Company announcement, announcement of the three-quarter report: achieved revenue of 1,768 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 365.62%, attributable net profit of 94 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 346.31%, and an EPS of 0.32. Performance broke through as scheduled, and a short period of pressure slowed down: 1) Performance increased more than threefold: during the reporting period, the company achieved revenue of 1,768 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 365.62% (previous value -25.79%), and realized attributable net profit of 94 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 346.31% (previous value -78.05%). Short-term performance pressure in the first half of the year was alleviated, mainly due to an increase in delivery area during the period and an increase in settlement; 2) ROE increased: The company's gross sales margin during the reporting period was 22.43%, down 15 pcs from the same period last year. Net interest rate compared to the previous year There was an increase of 2.47pc in the same period, and the ROE was 5.79%, an increase of 4.55pc over the same period last year. 3) High cash market value ratio: The company actively used capital market platform financing to complete debt financing of 1.47 billion yuan, and the total amount of capital to be raised in equity financing did not exceed 1.2 billion yuan (currently the fixed increase plan has been approved by the State Council's State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission), greatly optimizing the company's capital structure. The company's short-term debt repayment pressure was in place during the reporting period. The net debt ratio was still optimistic, and there was plenty of monetary capital during the reporting period. The cash market capitalization ratio reached 3.792 billion yuan during the reporting period. The cash market value ratio was 66.84%. Ample capital increased strong financial support for the company's subsequent projects and strategic development 。 Sales reached a new high, with strong multi-faceted strength to promote development: 1) Sales reached a record high: During the reporting period, the company achieved a sales amount of 2,885 billion yuan, an increase of 199.58% over the previous year, benefiting from the improvement in the real estate market in 2016. Sales in the first three quarters reached 167.27% of last year's annual sales; the average sales price was about 11,000 yuan/square meter, an increase of about 56.50% over the same period last year; the cumulative construction area during the reporting period was 630,200 square meters, accounting for 446.95% of the newly started and completed area of the previous year, 446.95% 118.54%; 2) Equity acquisition promotes development: On August 19, the company announced that the company plans to invest 533 million yuan to acquire 30% of the shares of Suzhou company held by China Housing Group. By the end of the reporting period, the acquisition has been registered; the project held by the Suzhou company is located in the Yangtze River Delta economic circle, which is expected to benefit from the development of the economic circle in the future. The company's acquisition of the Suzhou company may provide new growth points for the company's future profits; 3) Capital increase and strong stock expansion: On September 19, the company announced that it plans to invest 190 million yuan in capital expansion in Chongqing CCIC Greentown. During the period, this The capital increase and stock expansion matters have been completed, and the name has been changed to Chongqing CCCC Southwest Real Estate Company; this capital increase and stock expansion will facilitate the development of project financing work and strengthen the strength of the Chongqing subsidiary. Investment suggestions: The company achieved contract sales of 2,885 billion yuan in January-September, reaching 167.27% of last year's full-year sales. Furthermore, the company's diversified financing channels can provide strong resource support for project development and construction; the acquisition of 30% of Suzhou's shares is expected to bring new profit growth points to the company; the company is expected to continue as a rare real estate target with a small market capitalization with state-owned assets reform endowments, and the catalysis brought about by deepening group resource integration is expected to continue. We expect the company's EPS for 16-18 to be 0.16, 0.18, and 0.23, respectively, and the PE multiples of the stock price corresponding to the suspension period are 118.2X, 107.5X, and 81.6X; we maintain a “buy-A” rating, with a target price of 24.5 yuan for six months. Risk warning: performance falls short of expectations, long-term revenue growth in real estate business does not increase profit

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