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鹿港文化(601599)季报点评:双轮驱动 电影与网络剧发力

平安證券 ·  Nov 7, 2016 00:00  · Researches

  Ping An's view: The results for the first three quarters are in line with expectations and are expected to maintain high growth throughout the year: in 2016, the company achieved revenue of 2.253 billion yuan and net profit of 113 million yuan, up 19.57% and 28.59% year-on-year respectively; in the third quarter, it achieved revenue of 919 million yuan and net profit of 32.11 million, up 43% and 38% year-on-year respectively. The company now has Lugang Internet Television, Century Changlong, and Tianyi Film and Television. It is expected that dramas such as “Moke Xing”, “Bodyguard”, “Flowers Bloom Like a Dream”, “Dragon Ball”, and “Pinnacle of Flaming Youth” will be confirmed throughout the year. Century Changlong has gradually demonstrated its ability to distribute movies, boosting imported films: Following the successful co-release of “The Return of the Daisheng” in '15, and the summer release of “Notes on a Tomb Raider” in 2016, which garnered 1 billion dollars in box office and a profit of nearly 50 million, the company actively intervened in the distribution of imported films. Century Changlong released “Sherlock” in 2016 and received 160 million box office. It will also release “League of Spies” in November, invested in “Railway Flying Tiger” on New Year's Day, and will actively reserve imported film sources for 17 years to vigorously develop the imported blockbuster business. There will soon be a launch of a new web drama, and it is hoped that Tianyi's remaining shares will be re-acquired in the future: at present, Tianxia Bashang has completed “Touching Jinyu,” and it is expected that Lugang Internet Film and Television will launch another major web drama after “Mickey Bank.” Zhejiang Tianyi is expected to fulfill this year's performance promise, and it is expected that the company will acquire the remaining shares in the future. In 2017, the company will also launch top dramas such as “Touch the Golden Sign”, “Dragon Ball Legends”, “The Road to White Tonight”, “Do Not Disturb”, and “Tang Minghuang”. Investment advice: The company's profit for 16-17 is expected to be 192 million or 290 million, and the company's current valuation is 47.2, 31.3 times lower. We judge that next year's movies will be the year of the explosion of foreign-language films (the year-on-year growth rate is expected to reach 50%), and the subsequent import film policy will continue to improve. It is expected that the company will clearly benefit from the IP transformation and the explosion of imported films, so we maintain a “strong recommendation” with a target price of 14 yuan. Risk warning: Foreign language film growth fell short of expectations, and guaranteed box office fell short of expectations.

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