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宁波建工(601789)深度研究:技术和资源优势助力IDC 与量子通信业务腾飞

申萬宏源研究 ·  Nov 3, 2016 00:00  · Researches

  Investment points: Maintain profit forecasts and maintain the “increase in holdings” rating: We expect the company's net profit for 16-18 to be 200 million/310 million/480 million, respectively, with a corresponding growth rate of 5%/55%/55%/55%. After the issuance is completed, the company's total share capital will expand to 1,406 billion shares, and the corresponding diluted PE will be 55X/35X/23X. Using the PE valuation method for comparable companies, the market unanimously expects that the 16/17 valuation center for construction companies is 35X/24X, and the 16/17 valuation center for IDC companies is 56X/38X. China Economic Cloud, which issues shares and purchases, controls IDC resources in the core region, and has outstanding technological and resource advantages in the field of quantum communication. The development prospects are good. It should enjoy a higher valuation level than the industry average and give it an “increase in retention” rating. Key assumptions: the acquisition of China Economic Cloud was approved by the Securities Regulatory Commission; China Economic Cloud's performance was in line with expectations; and the main business was growing steadily. Different from the public's perception: (1) The market is concerned about the ability of China Economic Cloud to fulfill its high profit growth promises. We believe that China Economic Cloud holds the core regional IDC resources, and that the performance commitment is guaranteed. The data center project of China Economic Cloud is located in Yizhuang, Beijing. The first and second phases have designed a total of 11,000 cabinets. The estimated value of 100% equity of China Jingyun is 1,578 billion yuan, and the promised net profit for 17-19 is 82.7811 million yuan, 22,80518 million yuan, and 23,2923,900 yuan. The market is worried about the company's ability to fulfill its performance commitments. We believe that it is already difficult for Beijing to approve new IDC data centers. Market demand is strong. It is conservatively estimated that a single cabinet will contribute more than 20,000 yuan in net profit in a year, and profit certainty is high. (2) The market is concerned about the company's growth. We believe that Zhongjing Cloud has outstanding technological and resource advantages and is a leader in optical storage. In the future, it will enter cloud computing and quantum communication to open up growth. China Jingyun was founded in 2013 with the approval of the National Information Center. Dr. Sun Maojin is the general manager. The opto-magnetic fusion and big data cold storage concept proposed by China Economic Cloud received strong support from 21 academicians. Relying on technical advantages, the company established IDC data centers and big data cold storage, and combined with cloud computing technology, is committed to providing customers with data management and operation services throughout the life cycle. (3) China Jingyun became one of the first members of the “Quantum Communications Branch of the China Information Association” and has a high status in the industry. Data centers, big data cold storage and secure storage and transmission are inseparable. On October 12, 2016, China Economic Cloud became one of the first members of the “Quantum Communications Branch of the China Information Association” and served as the vice president unit. It also established a joint venture with HKUST Guandun to establish Zhongjing Liangtong Technology (Beijing) Co., Ltd., which holds 40% of its shares, so there is plenty of room for cooperation in the future. (4) The company's PPP business is developing at an accelerated pace, and its profitability is higher than that of traditional housing construction. At present, PPP projects have won a total of 4.192 billion yuan in bids. The company also saw a good increase in construction contracts this year. The total contract amount for the first three quarters was about RMB 9.824 billion, an increase of 57.20% over the same period last year. (5) Acquire Anlan Securities to create a platform and link connecting China-Africa capital. In 2015, the company acquired 100% of Anlan Securities's shares in cash. Anlan Securities is a securities company registered on the Johannesburg Stock Exchange in South Africa. The company's acquisition of Anlan Securities helps the company to use Anlan Securities as an entry point. On the one hand, it responds to the “Belt and Road” strategy and explores overseas engineering business; on the other hand, it builds a financial service platform and communication bridge between Chinese enterprises and markets to provide localized investment and financing services for Chinese enterprises in Africa and expand related markets. Catalysts for stock price performance: China Economic Cloud's business has new development breakthroughs; Anlan Securities has new business breakthroughs; PPP has obtained large orders, and performance has exceeded expectations, etc. Risk of core assumptions: the acquisition of Jingyun was not approved; performance did not meet expectations, etc.

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