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银龙股份(603969)点评:全年业绩维稳 多点开花值得期待

長江證券 ·  Jan 17, 2017 00:00  · Researches

  Key events in the report describe the Yinlong Co., Ltd. follow-up review report. Incident review Infrastructure investment continued to increase, and performance remained stable throughout 2016: The company's main business scope includes two major products, prestressed steel products and ballastless track plates for high-speed rail, with an annual production capacity of 500,000 tons of prestressed steel products. The company is the world's largest supplier of prestressed concrete steel. At the same time, the company is the main R&D unit for CRTSIII pre-tensioned ballastless track panels, participating in the entire process from product concept design and samples to final mass production, so it has a comparative advantage in track board development technology and order acceptance. Benefiting from the continued boom in the infrastructure sector, the company's full-year performance in 2016 is expected to stabilize: the year-on-year growth rate of infrastructure investment reached 17.21% in the first 11 months of 2016, with the company's investment growth rates in the main downstream water conservancy and road sectors reaching 20.20% and 16.90% respectively during the same period, all maintaining medium to high levels in recent years. Furthermore, although national railway fixed asset investment declined slightly by 2.71% in 2016, the high-speed rail sector is more popular for investment as a relatively high-end manufacturing industry. The proportion of the country's high-speed rail operating mileage in total operating mileage increased by 1.34 per cent Each percentage point to 17.74%. At the same time, the company has comparative advantages such as ballastless track board technology and certification, and has obtained market orders or more lucrative within the industry, so the track board business is also likely to become another major source of stable performance throughout the year. The main business is steady, and we expect the diversified layout to blossom: against the backdrop of the gradual weakening of the real estate sector, infrastructure investment continues to increase or become a major hedging tool for the government to control steady economic growth. The resulting relative boom in the infrastructure sector is expected to provide important support for the stable production and sales of the company's prestressed steel products. At the same time, the “13th Five-Year Plan” plan added 11,000 kilometers of high-speed rail mileage in five years, and the additional 2162 kilometers of high-speed rail mileage in 2016 is basically in line with the average annual level of the five-year plan. Therefore, it is expected that the new high-speed rail mileage will remain stable in the later stages, thus creating a stable demand market for the company's high-speed rail track board products. In terms of diversified business, the company closely follows downstream development trends and adjusts fund-raising projects in a timely manner. In order to meet the needs of domestic subway construction and export markets, the company plans to add a 3,000-ton steel wire production line, and also build a 20,000 ton galvanized product production line to enter the bridge cable market. In addition, the company's prestressed concrete steel wire products obtained the CNNC Qualified Supplier Certificate on August 22, 2016. As the nuclear power construction process restarts and gradually accelerates in the future, the company is expected to extend its business to the nuclear power sector with great potential, thus creating a new profit growth point for the company's business performance. Overall, the company is expected to grow more in the future by consolidating its main business, thereby achieving long-term stable business development. The company's EPS is expected to be 0.34 yuan and 0.37 yuan in 2016 and 2017, maintaining the “gain” rating. Risk warning: 1. Demand in the steel industry fluctuated beyond expectations.

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