Main points of investment
The company is a large-scale independent oil field service provider which can provide integrated drilling engineering technical services. At present, the company has many oilfield engineering and technical service qualifications and access qualifications of many domestic oilfields, at the same time, the company also has the qualification to contract petroleum technical service projects abroad, and the company has the opportunity to participate in the development of oil and gas resources in neighboring countries. Enjoy the development opportunities brought by the surrounding markets.
The company's operating income and net profit remained stable. From 2012 to 2015, the company's main business income was 684 million, 1.046 billion, 662 million and 729 million respectively, mainly due to large-scale investment by oil companies in Xinjiang in 2013, resulting in a sharp increase in revenue, while in 2014, affected by the decline in oil prices, the scale of investment in exploration and development has declined, the company's engineering volume has declined, and revenue has also declined. In 2015, due to the higher revenue from potash wells in Jingzhou area confirmed by the company, revenue rebounded from 2014. It is estimated that the operating income in 2016 will be 56216.95-619.7919 million yuan, down 22.98% and 15.09% compared with the same period last year, and the net profit deducted from non-returning mothers will be 5258.86-58.2029 million yuan, down 14.24%-5.09% from the same period last year.
The development of the industry and the increase of market demand bring new opportunities to the company's business development. With the support of national policy, the growth of energy consumption demand and the high capital expenditure of exploration and development, the overall development of oilfield engineering and technical service industry will rise steadily. With the gradual opening of the oil field service market, the market space of private companies will continue to expand. The expansion of overseas oil and gas rights and interests is also beneficial for Chinese oil service companies to go to the world and expand new market space.
Profit forecast and rating: we predict that the company's EPS from 2016 to 2018 will be 0.48,0.65 and 0.93 yuan respectively, with year-on-year growth of-14.4%, 37.0% and 42.0%, respectively. With reference to the valuation of the comparable company, and taking into account the future demand of the company's products and the competitiveness of the company, we think that it is reasonable to give the company a 30~40PE in 2016, with a corresponding price range of 14.40 to 19.20 yuan. Coverage for the first time, no rating for the time being.
Risk hint; risk of a sharp fall in oil prices; risk of policy change.