Event
The company announced a pre-increase in 2016 results last night. According to preliminary estimates by the finance department, the net profit attributed to shareholders of listed companies in 2016 is expected to increase by 250% compared with the same period last year. The net profit attributed to the listed company in 2015 is 73.41 million yuan. based on this, the company is expected to achieve a net profit of RMB257-315 million in 2016, with a substantial increase in performance, which is basically in line with our previous profit forecast.
Substantial pre-increase in performance, substantial growth in medical care, settlement of real estate and convergence of investment income the company's performance has increased significantly this year, mainly due to three aspects: first, the income of the medical sector with integrated health care as the main body has increased significantly. In 2015, the company signed and operated 28 medical cooperation projects, and in 2016, 4 oncology treatment centers and 2 hospitals were newly signed. At present, the total number of contracted and operating projects has reached 34. The second is the completion and settlement of some real estate projects under construction. The remaining real estate projects of listed companies are mainly concentrated in Zhuhai and Shenzhen, and house prices have increased greatly since the beginning of this year. The third is the investment income from the sale of subsidiaries, which sold 100% of Qianjiang Zhongzhu in December. Yangjiang Haohui 100% and Chenzhou Gaoshi Weiye 51% of the three subsidiaries, the company received a pre-tax income of about 79 million yuan, which had a positive impact on the current performance.
Divestiture of non-core business and structural adjustment of operation continue to be on the way
The company's business strategy transformation medical health industry has a firm determination and strong executive power. From the end of 2015 to the present, four subsidiaries of building materials, real estate marketing, landscaping and decoration engineering have been transferred successively, as well as the divestiture of the company's 70% stake in Hongrun Feng Coal Industry at the beginning of this year, and the sale of 100% of Qianjiang Zhongzhu in early December. Yangjiang Haohui 100% and Chenzhou Gaoshi Weiye 51% of the real estate business subsidiaries to the major shareholder Zhongzhu Group, gradually divest the non-core business, and realize the balance sheet cage change. In terms of the layout of the health care industry, in 2016, on the basis of the successful completion of the major asset restructuring and acquisition of Shenzhen Integrated Medical Technology Co., Ltd., the company continued to increase the size of the health care industry in line with market changes, successively led the private tertiary general hospital Harbin Jiarun Hospital to build an oncology radiotherapy center, and spent 150 million yuan to acquire the SCM-198 new drug project of Fudan University. And bought 65% of the shares in the hospital of Lu'an Development Zone with a total price of 36.86 million yuan. The company continues to spin off non-core business, operating structural adjustment on the way.
The profit is basically in line with expectations, and the pullback brings low suction opportunities.
In our November research report, we forecast that in 2016-2018, the company would have revenue of 1.42 billion yuan and net profit of 2.8 million yuan, or EPS0.39/0.54/0.60 yuan per share. The company's 2016 results forecast net profit of 2.57-315 million yuan, with a median of 286 million yuan, which is basically in line with our profit forecast. Taking the median profit forecast of 286 million yuan as this year's results, the company's net profit from 2016 to 2018 is expected to be 286 PE 380 million yuan, or EPS0.40/0.54/0.60 yuan per share, corresponding to yesterday's closing price of 24.54 yuan.
As of yesterday's close, the medical device (SW) industry as a whole PE (TTM) 63 times, comparable company Xinghe Biological PE (2016 consensus forecast) is about 98 times, the company's current price corresponding to 2016PE 61 times considering the company's non-public offering financing of 1.3 billion yuan and future real estate to provide sufficient cash flow for the development of the medical sector, we maintain the price of 37 yuan in the next 12 months unchanged.
Risk hint
The expansion speed of tumor center is lower than expected, and there is a risk of integrated medical integration.