Event: the company announced results KuaiBao: 2016 revenue of 1.918 billion yuan, an increase of 6.29% over the same period last year; net profit of 151 million yuan, down 7.76% from the same period last year, corresponding to an eps of 0.18 yuan per share.
Comments:
Some mold projects affect the company's profit margin, and Xiangtan Prisson has increased significantly.
1) Q4 revenue of 615 million yuan, down 11.42% from the same period last year, affecting the annual income growth significantly narrowed, we infer that it may be related to income recognition fluctuations; 2) Q4 net interest rate of 7.94% (excluding minority shareholders' profit and loss), compared with Q3 significantly rebounded, full-year net interest rate of 7.89%, down 1.2% compared with the same caliber in 2015, is expected to be mainly related to the fluctuation of gross profit of some mold projects. Among them, European companies are expected to continue to improve in the future after continuous running-in. 3) Xiangtan Prisson, a wholly owned subsidiary, mainly makes products such as overspeed shaft assembly and clutch outer gear hub assembly of automobile automatic gearbox. According to public information, it mainly provides 6AT gearbox core components for Jili Jisheng. Benefiting from the production and sales volume of Geely's new product cycle, Xiangtan Prisson matching began to grow significantly, and is expected to continue to maintain rapid growth in the future, providing a good increment for the company's performance.
The acquisition of Chaoda enters the field of internal and external decoration moulds and pays attention to the strategic layout of diversification.
1) the company leads the world in the scale of automobile panel die business, the customer structure is of high quality, and the product quality is recognized by the mainstream vehicle manufacturers at home and abroad. With the transfer of the major automobile mold industry in Europe and the United States to China and other low-cost countries and the layout of the company's overseas markets, the domestic and foreign sales of the company's panel mold business is still expected to grow rapidly, and the market share is expected to increase gradually. 2) the company is actively extending the industrial chain and is promoting the acquisition of Chaoda equipment into the field of automobile internal and external decoration moulds, which is expected to form a synergistic effect with the company's main business and enhance the company's future growth space. According to the Chaoda performance commitment, it is expected to significantly increase the company's performance in 2017-18. In addition, the company will continue to seek cooperation projects and continue to explore diversified strategic layout around aerospace, military, new energy, intelligent manufacturing, high-end equipment manufacturing and other high-tech fields and emerging industries. These will help to disperse the company's operational risks and seek new growth points for long-term development in the future.
Profit forecast, maintain "overweight" rating
Without considering M & An assets for the time being, we adjust our profit forecast: the company's EPS in 2016-18 is expected to be 0.18 EPS 0.24 0.32 yuan per share, corresponding to 27 times the PE in 2017, maintaining the "overweight" rating. The automobile industry is the target of weak cycle, with sufficient orders on hand, domestic and export sales will still grow rapidly, at the same time, the strategic layout of diversification is expected to be strong, so it is recommended to pay continuous attention to it.
Risk hints: domestic and export mold business growth is lower than expected; cost growth is higher than expected; convertible bond project production progress is lower than expected; M & An integration risk; exchange rate risk.