Chutian Expressway (600035) Quarterly report Review: profit growth of 27% continues to be optimistic about the coordinated development of high speed and intelligent manufacturing.

申萬宏源研究 · Apr 28, 2017 00:00 · Researches

　　投资要点：

　　公告/新闻：楚天高速发布2017 一季报。由于三木智能在2 月并表，报告期实现收入5.24亿，同比增长49.29%，毛利率为52.44%，同比下降约20 个点，整体毛利润达到2.75 亿，同比增长5.79%；实现净利润1.73 亿，同比增长26.89%。基本每股收益0.11 元，加权平均ROE 为3.56%，同比增加0.28 个百分点。业绩符合预期。

　　高速稳定，三木并表收入增长显著。高速经营方面，公司现拥有汉宜、大随、黄咸三条高速路，全长419.22 公里；其中核心资产汉宜路位于湖北省核心区域，运营时间较长收入情况稳定，贡献高速板块收入85%以上。智能制造方面，2 月三木智能并表，由于处于行业淡季，我们测算仅贡献约1.5 亿左右收入，毛利润贡献2000 万左右。我们预期全年三木智能将为贡献约16 亿收入，1.3 亿左右利润，进一步增厚公司业绩。

　　并购费用及退出基金带来一次性业绩影响。本期管理费用大幅增加2638 万，同比增长291%，新增管理费用包括两块：其一是三木智能并表后新增管理费用，根据公司以往财务情况，管理费用大致在1200 万左右；其二是本次三木并表的中介费用，在1400 万左右，属于一次性计提的支出，影响利润约1000 万。此外，公司2 月公司因基金到期正常退出产业基金，获得4251 万投资收益。剔除掉一次性收入费用影响后，我们测算得公司主业净利润约为1.41亿，实际增长3.68%，这与并表时间较短，且处于淡季有一定关系。

　　看好双主业协同发展。我们预期楚天高速、智能制造双主业将在两个维度进行合作：其一，三木所处领域为资金密集型行业，楚天高速拥有的稳定现金流，能帮助三木扩大生产，进一步提升业绩；其二，楚天高速借助三木智能引入“智能交通”管理服务，有助于实现智能监控、智能收费、智能通行管理等，借此提升公路通行效率及服务品质，或打造全国示范性高速企业。同时，我们认为鉴于楚天的强劲现金流，仍具有围绕三木产业链做持续并购预期。

　　维持盈利预测，维持“买入”评级。我们维持盈利预测，预计2017 年至2019 EPS 分别为0.32元、0.34 元、0.35 元，对应现在股价PE 分别为18 倍、16 倍、16 倍。我们仍然认为当前市场对三木智能的技术水平和市场空间有所低估，估值尚未反应三木智能的合理价值及未来产业链持续深入发展的预期，此外国企改革排头兵溢价不甚明显，当前股价维持“买入”评级。

　　风险提示：三木智能业绩不达预期；政策影响高速公路车流量可能下滑。

Main points of investment:

Announcement / News: Chutian Expressway releases the first quarterly report of 2017. As Miki Intelligence consolidated its balance sheet in February, the revenue in the reporting period reached 524 million, an increase of 49.29% over the same period last year, with a gross profit margin of 52.44%, a decrease of about 20 points, an overall gross profit of 275 million, an increase of 5.79% over the same period last year, and a net profit of 173 million, an increase of 26.89% over the same period last year. The basic earnings per share is 0.11 yuan, and the weighted average ROE is 3.56%, an increase of 0.28% over the same period last year. The performance is in line with expectations.

High-speed and stable, Miki combined table income increased significantly. In terms of high-speed operation, the company now has three expressways of Hanyi, Dasui and Huangxian, with a total length of 419.22 km. Hanyi Road, the core asset of which is located in the core area of Hubei Province, has a stable income situation for a long time and contributes more than 85% of the income of the high-speed plate. In terms of intelligent manufacturing, Miki Smart in February, due to the off-season in the industry, we estimate that it will only contribute about 150 million of revenue and 20 million of gross profit. We expect Miki Intelligence to contribute about 1.6 billion in revenue and 130 million in profit for the whole year, further thickening the company's performance.

M & A fees and withdrawal from the fund bring one-off performance impact. The management fee for the current period has increased significantly by 26.38 million, an increase of 291% over the same period last year, and the new management fee includes two pieces: one is the new management fee after the Miki Intelligence statement, which is about 12 million according to the company's past financial situation; the second is the intermediary fee of the Miki merger table, which is about 14 million, which is an one-time expenditure, affecting profits of about 10 million. In addition, in February, the company withdrew from the industrial fund normally due to the expiration of the fund, with an investment income of 42.51 million. After excluding the impact of one-time income and expenses, we estimate that the company's main business net profit is about 141 million, an increase of 3.68% in real terms, which has something to do with the short consolidation time and the off-season.

We are optimistic about the coordinated development of the two main industries. We expect that the dual main industries of Chutian Expressway and intelligent manufacturing will cooperate in two dimensions: first, Miki is in a capital-intensive industry, and the stable cash flow of Chutian Expressway can help Miki expand production and further improve its performance. Second, Chutian Expressway introduces "intelligent transportation" management service with the help of Miki intelligence, which helps to realize intelligent monitoring, intelligent toll collection, intelligent traffic management and so on, so as to improve highway traffic efficiency and service quality. or build a national demonstration high-speed enterprise. At the same time, we believe that in view of Chutian's strong cash flow, there are still expectations of continuous mergers and acquisitions around the Miki industrial chain.

Maintain earnings forecasts and maintain "buy" ratings. We maintain our profit forecast and estimate that the EPS from 2017 to 2019 will be 0.32 yuan, 0.34 yuan and 0.35 yuan respectively, corresponding to the current share price PE of 18 times, 16 times and 16 times respectively. We still believe that the current market underestimates the technical level and market space of Miki Intelligence, and the valuation has not yet reflected the reasonable value of Miki Intelligence and the expectation of sustained in-depth development of the industrial chain in the future. in addition, the premium for the vanguard of state-owned enterprise reform is not very obvious, and the current stock price maintains a "buy" rating.

Risk hint: Miki intelligent performance is not up to expectations; policy impact on highway traffic may decline.

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楚天高速(600035)季报点评：利润增长27% 持续看好高速、智能制造协同发展

Chutian Expressway (600035) Quarterly report Review: profit growth of 27% continues to be optimistic about the coordinated development of high speed and intelligent manufacturing.

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