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鹿港文化(601599)年报&一季报点评:毛纺稳中有升 影视文化仍是发展重点

國泰君安 ·  Apr 26, 2017 00:00  · Researches

  Guide to this report: The performance is in line with market expectations, and the price and gross margin of wool products have increased, promoting a steady increase in the profit contribution of the textile sector; the film and television business is still the focus of future development, and we are optimistic about the advantages of its two subsidiaries in quality production. Increase in holdings. Key investment points: Performance is in line with market expectations and maintains an increase in holdings rating. The two wheels of textile film and television drive new growth, and ingenuity lays the foundation for the strength of film and television media. 2016 revenue/net profit was 3,589 million (+51.44%) /179 million (+50.58%); 16Q4 revenue/net profit was 1,336 million (+45.32%) /66 million (+105%), respectively, and revenue/net profit for the first quarter of '17 was 644 million (+36.57%) /9.09 million (+20.33%), respectively. The performance was in line with market expectations, slightly lower than our expectations. Rising cost investment in the film and television business affected the level of gross margin. The 2017 EPS was lowered to 0.36 yuan (previous value: 0.38 yuan), and the estimated EPS for 2018-19 was 0.51/0.77 yuan, maintaining the target price of 13.3 yuan, corresponding to 26 times PE in 2018, maintaining the “increased holding” rating. Wool's performance has been rising steadily, with semi-worsted textiles and garments showing a double highlight. In 2016, the company's textile business revenue increased 8.22% year on year and gross margin increased by 16.45%. Among them, revenue from the semi-worsted business increased by 30.66% and the garment business increased by 14.8%. This was due to the recovery in textile business during the reporting period. The company actively promoted product restructuring and technical reform measures. High-end and high-value-added products further increased profit margins, increased international market share, and increased sales volume through peer-to-peer development for key customers. The performance of the film and television media was completed as scheduled, and the Cultural Industry Fund demonstrated its strength. 1) In 2016, dramas such as “Tomb Raider Notes” and “Railway Flying Tiger” were successfully released, laying the foundation for performance. “Dragon Ball Legends” exceeded the profit plan and strongly promoted profit growth. 2) The subsidiary Century Changlong plans to invest in cultural industry projects in 2017 to further optimize the layout of the cultural industry. It is expected that the company's film and television business will continue to expand rapidly in 2017, boosting overall performance. Furthermore, it is expected that the media sector will advance Zhejiang Tianyi's remaining equity mergers and acquisitions. Risk warning: Demand for clothing consumption continues to be sluggish; the risk that filming of movies and TV dramas is progressing less than expected.

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