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国盛金控(002670)一季报点评:券商自营拖累业绩 金控布局稳步推进

國泰君安 ·  Apr 24, 2017 00:00  · Researches

Guide to this report: With the management team in place and the capital strength of Guosheng Securities greatly improved, it is optimistic that the company's performance will improve in the future; at the same time, with the advantage of actual control of human resources, the company's financial control layout is expected to advance steadily. Investment points: Maintain the “increase in holdings” rating and maintain the target price of 46.05 yuan/share. The company's 17Q1 total operating revenue/net profit was 579/035 million yuan, +226.6%/+388.2% year-on-year and +7.25%/-87% month-on-month. The performance was in line with our expectations. Since May 2016, Guosheng Securities has been consolidated, resulting in a significant year-on-year increase in the company's 17th Q1 performance. We expect the month-on-month decline in performance to be mainly affected by Guosheng Securities's own business. With the gradual establishment of the management team of Guosheng Securities and the significant increase in capital strength, we are optimistic that the company's performance will improve later, maintaining the company's 2017-19 EPS of 1.10/1.29 yuan and maintaining the target price of 46.05 yuan/share, corresponding to 42 X PE in 2017, and increase holdings. Brokerage and self-employment have dragged down the securities business from month to month, and the availability of management and capital is expected to boost performance in the future. (1) Guosheng Securities's 17Q1 revenue is expected to drop by about 59% month-on-month. Among them, due to fluctuations in the capital market, the self-operated business is expected to lose a slight loss of 225 million yuan (16Q4 profit of 213 million yuan), which is the main factor dragging down performance; at the same time, the market stock base turnover was -17% month-on-month, which also had a negative impact on brokerage business. (2) Guosheng Securities passed fixed increases in 2016, corporate bonds to supplement capital exceeding 6 billion yuan, and has completed a major blood change in core management. The combination of private institutions and sufficient cash is expected to help the company improve its performance in the future. (3) The cable business is expected to achieve gross profit of 41 million yuan in 17Q1 (+46% year-on-year). High-quality consumer finance assets are expected to be listed, and the financial control layout is progressing steadily. According to reports from the investment community, Guosheng Financial Holdings and its actual controller are major shareholders in the “Happy Era” (Happy Era), a high-quality domestic consumer finance asset, which plans to go public in the US in the first half of this year. Quintessential listing in US stocks will bring the company an opportunity to revalue its assets. At the same time, taking advantage of the company's actual controller resource advantages, it is expected that the strategy of financial control layout around the assets of listed companies and actual controllers will continue to advance in the future. Risk warning: Financial license approval risks, brokerage performance has declined sharply.

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