Summary of the report:
The restructuring introduced high-quality pharmaceutical assets, and the performance of the original chemical sector was stable. The company was listed in backdoor Wanchang Technology on October 20, 2015, and placed high-quality biomedical assets on the basis of fine chemicals, including Xiamen Weiming (rat nerve factor), Tianjin Weiming (interferon) and the shareholding company Beijing Kexing (vaccine). After the restructuring, the company's profitability and product competitiveness have been greatly improved. The former chemical business performance is stable, contributing stable cash flow to listed companies.
The EV71 vaccine released rapidly after it was put on the market, which significantly thickened the company's performance. Due to the impact of the Shandong vaccine incident, Beijing Science and Technology lost a lot of money in the first half of 16 years. After the EV71 vaccine was put on the market in June, it released rapidly, with 4.6 million doses in seven months. In the future, with the increase of vaccine stock and incremental market penetration, we predict that Beijing Kexing EV71 vaccine will achieve a net profit of 375 million, 533 million and 632 million in 2017-2019. Based on 26.91% equity participation, the performance contribution of 101 million, 163 million and 196 million yuan will be significantly thickened in the next three years from 17 to 19.
The expectation of privatization is strong, and the return time of Sinopec Holdings is approaching. In February 16, after the unnamed buyer group and the Kexing high-level buyer group issued the privatization invitation, the privatization process progressed steadily, and the situation gradually became clear. We believe that the future privatization will be completed by the unnamed buyer group on the basis of deep cooperation between the two sides, and the asset injection of the listed company will be completed recently. judging from the current sales of EV71 vaccine, the company's performance will be greatly improved in the future.
The injection of assets from unknown groups is expected to be strong. Weiming Group promises that Weiming Pharmaceutical will be the group's only pharmaceutical asset listing platform, and once Anhui Weiming (monoclonal antibody, cellular immunity) and Jiangsu Weiming (insulin) pharmaceutical assets make profits, they will be injected into listed companies. At the same time, the Group's assets include not only Anhui and Jiangsu, but also Beidaihe Health City (Industrial Park) and Xiangya Health Valley (medical services). Weiming Pharmaceutical is expected to undertake more high-quality assets of the group in the future, with its own growth and coordinated development through capital operation.
Company profit forecast and investment rating. The main performance of the company is sound, and the amount of EV71 vaccine of the participating companies is obvious. Without considering the injection of future privatized assets, we estimate that the net profits of shareholders belonging to listed companies in 16-18 will be 421 million yuan, 549 million yuan and 685 million yuan respectively, with growth rates of 68%, 31% and 25% respectively, and earnings per share of 0.64 yuan 0.83 yuan and 1.04 yuan respectively. According to the segment valuation method (excluding the merger table of Beijing Science and Technology), the reasonable market capitalization from 17 to 18 years is 16 billion and 20.4 billion respectively, and the current valuation is reasonable, corresponding to the 18-year target price of 30 yuan. If we consider the future consolidation of Beijing Science and Technology, the expected market value in 18 years is about 37.5 billion (earnings per share is expected to be diluted to a certain extent), and after the table, Beijing Science and Technology will greatly increase the market value of listed companies. Therefore, it is covered for the first time, giving the company a "highly recommended" rating.
Risk hints: rat neurokines are lower than expected; privatization process is blocked