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银龙股份(603969)深度报告:业绩持续反转 轨道板及钢轨业务前景看好

民生證券 ·  Apr 9, 2017 00:00  · Researches

  Report summary: The reversal trend of the core logic company's main business has been determined. It will continue to benefit from infrastructure investment and the removal of production capacity in the prestressed steel industry. Xinjiang, Xiong'an New Area, and the Belt and Road Initiative will bring incremental markets to the company. The CRTS III rail board market is vast, and the rail board business has expanded to the subway sector. The company joined hands with Hangang Steel Group to enter the rail market, which is expected to break the current market pattern. The reversal trend in the company's main business determined that since the second half of 2016, the company's prestressed steel products business has recovered strongly. The company achieved sales revenue of 458 million yuan and 493 million yuan respectively in the third and fourth quarters of 2016, with year-on-year increases of 27.11% and 84.28%, respectively, and net profit of 53.454 million yuan and 45.5542 million yuan respectively, up 85.48% and 45.68% year-on-year respectively. The first and fourth quarters were originally a low season for sales of prestressed steel products. The company's sales revenue in the fourth quarter of 2016 hit the highest level since the ninth quarter. We believe that infrastructure investment and industry capacity removal since the second half of last year have boosted the company's performance by far exceeding market expectations. Xinjiang, Xiong'an New Area, and Belt and Road Construction are expected to increase demand. The company established Yinlong, Xinjiang in 2015. Currently, the first phase of the project has been basically completed, and it is currently the only production base for prestressed steel products in Xinjiang. It is expected to continue to benefit from being driven by infrastructure demand in Xinjiang, and it is also expected to radiate the Belt and Road. The company's fund-raising project was put into operation this year. The Hejian branch and Baozelong production base are only more than 50 kilometers away from Xiong'an New Area. Prestressed steel products are widely used in the fields of railways, highways, water conservancy, civil construction and special engineering. Infrastructure construction related to Xinjiang, Xiong'an New Area, and the Belt and Road is expected to bring incremental demand to the company. The high-speed rail track board layout has been rolled out, and the subway track board pioneer is the main developer of the CRTS III advanced ballastless track board and rail board assembly intelligent production line. Currently, it has 4 high-speed rail board production bases. According to our estimates, the average annual market space for China's high-speed rail track boards is conservatively estimated to exceed 3.2 billion yuan. The company recently developed a two-way pre-stressed concrete composite damping track board for the subway. The first test section will soon be laid on Tianjin Metro Line 5, Line 6 and Urumqi Metro Line 1, marking the extension of the Yinlong rail board to the field of subway transportation. The annual market space for ballastless subway track boards is conservatively estimated at more than 1.5 billion yuan. Profit forecast and investment advice: Regardless of future mergers and acquisitions factors, we expect the company's EPS from 2017 to 2019 to be 0.49 yuan, 0.59 yuan, and 0.71 yuan respectively, and corresponding PE 32 times, 27 times, and 22 times, respectively, maintaining the “highly recommended” rating. Risk warning: infrastructure investment falls short of expectations, railway construction progress falls short of expectations, and raw material prices fluctuate sharply.

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