Main points of investment:
Event: the company announced its 2016 results.
The growth of real estate revenue tripled. The company still takes real estate as its main business in 2016, speeding up project construction and sales, and steadily promoting real estate development. Combined with the market situation, the company broadens the marketing channels and sales means to speed up the development and sales of ordinary housing. In 16 years, the company's annual real estate sales income was 2.728 billion yuan, an increase of 267.93% over the same period last year.
Operating costs increased due to increased sales efforts, individual properties pulled down the overall gross profit margin. The company's 16-year operating cost was 2.415 billion yuan, up 324.39% from the same period last year, and the gross profit margin was 11.48%, 11.78% lower than that in 15 years. There are two main factors for the reduction of gross profit margin. On the one hand, because of the strong sales of Quanzhou Haichen Zunyu Project and Shanghai Songjiang Sheshan Garden Project in 16 years, more advertising, promotion and sales agency fees were invested, and the sales cost increased by 374.44% compared with the same period last year. On the other hand, from the perspective of individual projects, the low gross profit margin of Heyuan City Phase II (negative income), Heyuan Xinyuan and Sheshan Heyuan pulled down the overall gross profit margin level.
The asset-liability ratio decreased slightly, and the idle funds carried out roll-over cash management to obtain interest income. The company's asset-liability ratio was 70.6% in 2016, down 6.1 percentage points from the same period last year. The company began to carry out cash management of idle funds at the beginning of 16 years, and earned interest income by rolling over capital preservation products of banks. A total of 16.688 million yuan of interest was received from January 2016 to March 2017.
The company's strategy is "innovation-driven, transformation and development". At present, the company still takes real estate as its main business, and uses real estate income to feed the salt lake and lithium energy industry. In 11-12, the company acquired Salt Lake and built a new material base in Shaanxi, laying out in advance the upstream mining and mid-stream refining of lithium electricity. The Longmu Salt Lake in Ritu County, BABA Prefecture, Tibet, which contains 10,000 tons of B2O3161.4, 9.7994 million tons of KCl and 2.3069 million tons of LiCl, belongs to large mineral reserves, and the mining right allows a production scale of 10,000 tons per year. Shaanxi Guoneng New Materials Project, which covers an area of 1000 mu, is a high-purity lithium carbonate industrial base. After it is fully put into production, the annual output value will reach about 4 billion yuan, the annual tax revenue will be about 500 million yuan, and more than 3000 jobs will be created. Lithium electricity and salt lake pre-trial is gradually promoted, is expected to contribute to sales revenue in the future.
Maintain the "overweight" rating. The real estate sales revenue of Tibet Holdings has increased significantly over the past 16 years, and the gross profit margin of most properties is about 40-60%, but the overall gross profit margin of Heyuan famous City Phase II is relatively low. The layout of the upper and middle reaches of lithium energy has been completed, and it is only a matter of time before large-scale production and new income are completed. Without counting the new energy business but considering the completion of restructuring, we estimate that the company's EPS in 2017 will be 0.22 yuan per share, corresponding to 58 times the PE of 12.82 yuan closing price on March 21, and giving the company 75 times PE in 2017, corresponding to the six-month target price of 16.50 yuan. Risk hint: policy regulation and control of the fundamentals of key cities downward.
