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【长江证券】农发种业跟踪报告:内生外延增长可期

[Changjiang Securities] Agricultural Development seed Industry follow-up report: endogenic and epitaxial growth is expected

長江證券 ·  Jan 23, 2017 00:00  · Researches

Event description

Follow-up report of agricultural development seed industry.

Event comment

In the future, the company will strengthen the construction of scientific research platform and enhance the core competitiveness of the seed industry. At this stage, the overcapacity of China's seed industry, the phenomenon of homogenization between products is serious, and in the context of the separation of seed companies, the R & D capability of seed companies is particularly important. In the future, the agricultural development seed industry will focus on building a scientific research platform at the level of listed companies, obtain advanced scientific and technological resources through cooperation with external forces (domestic and international), and graft them into subordinate seed enterprises at an appropriate time to give full play to their respective advantages. into commercial varieties. At present, the company has signed a strategic cooperation agreement with Beijing Boao Jingdian Biotechnology Co., Ltd. to cooperate in the construction of molecular breeding laboratory, bioinformatics big data analysis platform and the planning and implementation of product commercial transformation, etc., to increase the layout of research and development of transgenic technology. Under the general trend of the liberalization of China's GM policy in the future (it is expected that the corn GM market will be liberalized first in the later stage, and then expanded to other general food crops), it will help the company to seize the market opportunity.

The strategic thinking of the company to build the agricultural material integration platform of central enterprises is clear: with the seed plate as the core, the first step is to form a large pattern of seed + pesticide through epitaxial expansion. the second step is to strengthen the service platform docking mode of "agricultural materials + farm + collection and storage" through internal integration, extension cooperation and the creation of "agricultural materials + farm + collection and storage" service platform. Zhoukou Agricultural Service Company, which was set up on a pilot basis in the flooded area of the Yellow River, is progressing smoothly. In this pilot area, the company will continue to integrate storage, logistics and other supporting resources on the one hand and do a good job in the terminal agricultural product processing market on the other. It is expected that the service company will drive a total of 460 million yuan in agricultural sales income from farms in and around the flooded areas of the Yellow River; while in the central region, there are 5.26 million mu of farm land, which can drive about 105 million mu of rural arable land, with an income space as high as 24.2 billion yuan. According to the 10% net interest rate, the annual net profit is about 2.4 billion yuan, which is optimistic about the construction of its future agricultural material integration platform and agricultural service system.

The company will benefit from agricultural asset integration at the group level. In 2013, China Nongfa Group has successfully injected Jinxiu Huanong into the agricultural development seed industry, realizing the concentration of seed enterprises, while at the group level, it still has 4.3 million mu of domestic land and about 700000 mu of arable land (including Mudanjiang military Horse Farm here in the northeast, the land is fertile, the natural conditions are superior, and it is suitable for a variety of crops. At present, it has 90, 000 mu of arable land and 110000 mu of woodland) as well as huge overseas farms and pastures. Nongfa seed industry is the only planting listing platform under the group. Under the background of the reform of state-owned enterprises, there are great expectations for the injection of land assets. It is estimated that the company's EPS for 16 and 17 years will be 0.14,0.17 yuan respectively, giving it a "buy" rating.

Risk Tips:

1. The construction of service system is not as expected.

two。 The process of land reclamation reform fell short of expectations.

The translation is provided by third-party software.


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