The future performance of Zhongjing Cloud, which is to be acquired, is expected to exceed expectations, recommended to buy.
We conducted an in-depth study of the business of Zhongjing Cloud, which the company is going to acquire, and found that the contribution of the IDC business may exceed the forecast given in the restructuring plan. At the same time, there is more room for increment in quantum communications and optical-magnetic hybrid cloud storage business, and the deep equity binding of the company's core personnel provides a guarantee for new business development and performance release, and continues to recommend buying.
Retail IDC business is expected to provide incremental profits
IDC business is divided into two categories: wholesale and retail, which can also generate revenue from bandwidth sales in addition to cabinet rental. We judge that the performance forecast of the restructuring plan only takes into account the revenue from cabinet rental. Compared with the data of the same industry, we believe that the annual revenue from individual cabinet rental and bandwidth sales of Zhongjing IDC can reach 70,000 CNY. It is assumed that the progress of cabinet rental in 2017-19 will be 3000x9000pm, 50% of which will be in retail mode. The net interest rate is based on the hypothetical data of 27%, 36% and 36% of the restructuring plan. We expect the net profit of Zhongjing Cloud's IDC business to be 8505x34020 / 415.8 million yuan in 2017-19.
Not only IDC, quantum communication depth layout
Zhongjingyun's connection with Quantum Communications is more than just a joint venture with Guodun Quantum. According to the report of IDC Circle, Zhongjingyun has completed the construction of Beijing Metropolitan area Network of Quantum Communication, and Yizhuang computer room is the master control center of Beijing node of Quantum Communication Beijing-Shanghai trunk line. Zhongjingyun has the endorsement of Guodun Quantum and CDB and has the experience of man construction. We judge that there may be more progress in the promotion of quantum communication commercialization and the construction of wide area network in the future.
Not only IDC, optical and magnetic hybrid cloud storage is expected to provide incremental revenue
The company focused on the optical and magnetic hybrid cloud storage technology before getting involved in the IDC business. According to the EIA report of the Environmental Protection Bureau, Zhongjingyun will add 7500 optical storage array computers and 3000 magnetic storage array computers respectively in the Yizhuang IDC computer room, with the target storage capacity exceeding 3000PB. Optical-magnetic hybrid cloud storage can solve the storage needs of a large number of cold data in government, financial and other departments, and the customer category overlaps with IDC key customers. If sales can be achieved, it will further increase the identifiable revenue of a single cabinet (the size of cold data is more than 5 times that of hot data).
The equity of core personnel is deeply bound to ensure the promotion of business.
We have combed the shareholding ratio of some current executives of the company, which is more than 11.8%. If the supporting financing is allowed to be carried out and the employee shareholding completes the purchase, the shareholding ratio of the current executive may be more than 18%. At the same time, the shareholding ratio of Zhongjing Yun Sun Maojin team will also reach 14.5%. If the restructuring and supporting financing programs are approved, the core personnel will carry out deep equity binding to ensure the follow-up business of the company.
Maintain the buy rating
Temporarily maintain the company's profit forecast of 0.25 EPS 0.29won 0.35 yuan from 2016 to 2018. Taking into account the impact of IPOs (according to the existing scheme) and the performance contribution of Zhongjing Cloud, the EPS in 2017-18 is about 0.22max 0.40 yuan. Maintain the target price range of 8-10 yuan and maintain the buy rating.
Risk hint; the growth rate of fixed asset investment dropped sharply; the asset restructuring plan did not pass, and so on.