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【东北证券】拓日新能:业绩持续高增长,EPC与电站投资发力

東北證券 ·  Nov 16, 2016 00:00  · Researches

Report summary: The entire industry chain layout maintains competitive advantage: The company's deep layout in the photovoltaic industry chain has achieved comprehensive coverage from upstream pull/ingots to downstream components and power plant EPC business. At the same time, the company's production equipment self-control rate has reached more than 80%, and it has strong cost control capabilities, so the company can maintain its competitive advantage in the face of declining industry growth. Production capacity is expanding in an orderly manner, and performance is growing steadily: The company has 5 production bases, which complement and complement each other in the industrial chain. Each production base in the west has a localized cost advantage, which guarantees the competitiveness of products. The company achieved 600MW of module production capacity in the first half of the year, and 2GW of photovoltaic glass production capacity has completed basic transformation, and revenue has continued to increase, which has ensured a steady increase in performance. The development of its own power plants continues, and the share of revenue has increased: Since 2013, the company has begun to develop and lay out its own power plants. Currently, the total power plant size is over 220 MW, and the company's electricity bill revenue in the first half of the year accounted for nearly 20%. In the future, the company will continue to develop its own power plants. It plans to develop about 200MW of photovoltaic power plants every year, and plans to hold a total of 1 GW within 5 years, which will become a new performance growth point. EPC is gradually gaining strength, and has outstanding cost control capabilities: The company has an integrated advantage in the power plant EPC field and can provide customers with integrated services for components, design, installation and subsequent operation and maintenance. Relying on a layout covering the entire industry chain, 70%-80% of the cost in the entire EPC process can be controlled by the company itself, has strong cost competitiveness, and can also have a higher level of profit than the industry. Currently, the company has sufficient EPC orders, which is also the company's key development direction next year. Profit forecast: The company's EPS for 2016-2018 is expected to be 0.21, 0.29 and 0.37 yuan respectively. The company's industrial chain cost control capability is strong, performance is growing steadily, and its own power plants and EPC business continue to gain strength, maintaining an increase rating. Risk warning: (1) Power plant and EPC business development falls short of expectations; (2) PV installed capacity falls short of expectations

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