1. The company announces its results for three quarters
1) during the reporting period, realized operating income and attributable net profit were 5.65 yuan and 61 million yuan respectively, down 0.26% and 29.47% respectively over the same period last year, realizing EPS0.13 yuan. The revenue and net profit attributable to the third quarter were 1.97 yuan and 26 million yuan respectively, an increase of 0.06% and 61.69% respectively over the same period last year.
two。 Income growth is facing bottlenecks, and financial leasing business is developing rapidly, but the scale is still small.
1) Line 1 is the company's main source of income, accounting for more than 90%, but the passenger volume is basically stable. Due to the increase in transfer passenger flow, the diluted single ticket price has been diluted, and the overall revenue has declined slightly.
2) the financial leasing business is in a period of rapid development, but its scale is still small, due to its gross profit of more than 60%, contributing about 1/3 of gross profit. The substantial increase of 104.6% in operating profit in the third quarter came from the contribution of financial leasing business.
3. Possible overhaul expenses are concentrated in the fourth quarter.
The company disclosed that the annual overhaul cost is expected to be no more than 88.63 million yuan, and by the end of the third quarter, 27.8372 million yuan actually occurred. The company specially warned that there may be concentrated overhaul costs in the fourth quarter, which may result in a loss in the current performance in the fourth quarter.
4. Typical "large groups, small companies", the target of the reform of state-owned enterprises in Shanghai
1) Shentong Metro Group has assets of about 300 billion yuan and net assets of 180 billion yuan, the asset securitization rate is less than 1%, the subway mileage operated by listed companies is less than 5% of that of the group, and the profitability of listed companies is weak.
2) before we released the in-depth report "Shentong Metro: national Reform conjecture, potential Urban operators-- Enterprise change conjecture Series Research."
(1) ", made five conjectures about the future development of the company.
3) according to the shareholders disclosed in the three Quarterly report, the CSI Shanghai State-owned Enterprise traded Index Securities Investment Fund holds 5.1886 million shares of the company, accounting for 1.08%, ranking the third largest shareholder. The fund is the first ETF in China to invest in the reform of state-owned enterprises in Shanghai.
5. Investment advice: maintain profit forecasts with emphasis on "recommended" ratings
1) maintain that the EPS of the company from 2016 to 2018 is 0.15,0.16,0.22 yuan respectively, and the corresponding PE is 97x, 90x and 63x, respectively.
2) the asset securitization rate of the group is on the low side, and the profitability of listed companies is weak. We believe that with the help of the reform of the east wind, listed companies are expected to rely on the group to build more profitable sustainable business. On the other hand, MTR Corporation, if the company locates its strategy in the "rail communication + property" model in the future, it can open up long-term growth space. Emphasize the "recommended" rating.
3) Catalyst: the reform of state-owned enterprises in Shanghai has been promoted, and the capital operation of Shenzhen Metro has been further promoted.
4) risk points: the reform of state-owned enterprises is lower than expected.
