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【国海证券】九洲电气点评报告:持续拓展新能源发电、储能、充电桩领域

國海證券 ·  Sep 29, 2016 00:00  · Researches

Key investment points: The purchase price is close to shareholders' equity; the new energy operation business will continue to expand in the future. According to the asset purchase plan issued by the company, the company plans to issue shares to acquire 100% of Wanlong Wind Power Company and Jiaxing Wind Power Company at an issue price of 10.43 yuan/share. Wanlong Wind Power Company and Jiaxing Wind Power Company own a total of 95.25 MW wind power plants, all of which were connected to the grid in April 2016. The proposed purchase price is 257.6959 million yuan, which is basically equal to the total shareholders' equity of the two companies; it is estimated that the purchased power plants can contribute 30-35 million yuan in annual profits. The company plans to strive to own more than 1 GW of new energy power plants for 3 years. The company is expected to add about 300 MW of power plants every year, which will become a stable source of profit. EPC is full of orders, and it is expected that it will continue to gain strength. In 2016, the company has signed a general contracting contract of nearly 2 billion yuan; we expect to start 200-300 MWePC projects from 2016 to 2017, respectively, greatly increasing profits. Continuing to deepen and integrate investment cooperation, bringing large amounts of new energy resources to listed companies, the majority shareholders of Wanlong Wind Power Company and Jiaxing Wind Power Company made integrated investments, and the financing and investment execution partners were Shenzhen Qianhai CPC Investment and Fund Management Co., Ltd. In September 2016, the controlling shareholder of the company signed a “Strategic Cooperation Agreement” with Shenzhen Qianhai China Power Investment Finance and Fund Management Co., Ltd. and China Power Investment and Financial Leasing Co., Ltd. The parties plan to jointly establish a series of industrial investment funds with a total scale of 2 billion yuan within two years to invest in new energy projects jointly selected by the cooperating parties as capital. Jiuzhou Electric has priority acquisition rights for the projects invested by the fund. It is expected that industrial investment funds will bring large-scale EPC projects and power plants that can be merged and purchased to listed companies. The acquisition of Haocheng Electric and the electrical equipment business continues to advance. In 2015, the company acquired 99.93% of the shares of Shenyang Haocheng Electric Co., Ltd., at an issue price of 7.42 yuan/share. Haocheng Electric's downstream customers are mainly State Grid and China Southern Power Grid, which complement the company's traditional business electrical control and automation products and DC power systems. Haocheng Electric promised net profit of not less than RMB 37.5 million, RMB 45 million and RMB 51 million for 2015, 2016 and 2017, respectively. The net profit realized during the assessment period was not less than RMB 133.5 million. Actively entering the field of energy storage and fast charging, the company has made it clear that it will give full play to its advantages and actively enter the field of energy storage and charging piles. In terms of energy storage, the company plans to build demonstration projects for energy storage in the company's industrial park and the company's new energy power plants. In the field of charging piles, the integrated and split DC charging piles independently developed by the company have obtained two inspection certificates issued by authoritative national inspection agencies; the company's charging pile products were also selected for the Heilongjiang “12th Five-Year Plan” Science and Technology Innovation Achievements Exhibition as the province's scientific and technological achievements in the field of new energy. As the construction of charging networks in Heilongjiang Province and other regions increases, the company is expected to obtain larger orders. The equity incentive has been completed, and the majority shareholders and management have the same goals; the unlocking conditions are high, which indicates that the company has confidence in future development. On December 18, 2015, the company completed the grant of restricted shares. The grant price was 662 yuan, totaling 7.676 million shares, of which the five vice presidents awarded a total of 1.26 million shares. According to the unlocking conditions, in 2015-2017, the company deducted no less than 30 million, 100 million, or 200 million yuan in non-net profit. The company also made it clear that if the first and second unlocking periods expire, when the company's current performance level does not meet the corresponding performance assessment indicators, this portion of the underlying stocks can be deferred until the next year, and unlocked when the company's performance reaches the cumulative performance assessment target for the next year. Without considering additional sales, the company's 2016-2018 EPS is expected to be 0.34 yuan, 0.64 yuan, and 0.82, respectively. The corresponding valuations are 33 times, 18 times, and 14 times, respectively, maintaining the “buy” rating. Risks suggest that traditional business development falls short of expectations, EPC engineering development falls short of expectations, energy storage and charging pile advancement falls short of expectations, and uncertainty about the company's additional generation implementation

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